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Maize in Koumantou

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 35% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

103–172

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

101–198

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 103 and 172 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 101 and 198 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Koumantou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 103 and 172 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 101 and 198 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 135–171 149 122–190 241 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 127–186 149 112–229 257 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 103–172 131 73.8–210 185 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 101–187 134 72–257 193 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 101–198 133 69.5–275 190 –
Price history (202 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026150
Jul 2026150
Jun 2026150
May 2026150
Apr 2026169
Mar 2026156
Feb 2026156
Jan 2026175
Dec 2025175
Oct 2025175
Sept 2025175
Aug 2025175
Jul 2025200
Jun 2025200
May 2025213
Apr 2025225
Mar 2025175
Feb 2025176
Jan 2025175
Dec 2024188
Nov 2024200
Oct 2024280
Sept 2024250
Aug 2024250
Jul 2024226
Jun 2024206
May 2024200
Apr 2024200
Mar 2024192
Jan 2024175
Nov 2023175
Oct 2023200
Sept 2023200
Aug 2023200
Jul 2023181
Jun 2023220
May 2023225
Apr 2023225
Mar 2023225
Feb 2023225
Dec 2022175
Nov 2022175
Oct 2022250
Sept 2022300
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022315
May 2022275
Apr 2022265
Mar 2022224
Feb 2022190
Jan 2022198
Dec 2021195
Nov 2021163
Oct 2021205
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021217
Jul 2021204
Jun 2021200
May 2021181
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021175
Feb 2021156
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020135
Nov 2020125
Oct 2020125
Sept 2020125
Aug 2020125
Jul 2020125
Jun 2020125
May 2020125
Apr 2020125
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020100
Jan 2020100
Dec 2019100
Nov 201990
Jul 201990
Jun 2019125
May 2019125
Feb 2019110
Jan 2019110
Nov 2018110
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018190
Aug 2018175
Jul 2018175
Jun 2018175
May 2018155
Apr 2018135
Mar 2018135
Feb 2018145
Jan 2018136
Dec 2017130
Nov 2017130
Oct 2017156
Sept 2017150
Aug 2017395Data error
Jul 2017125
Jun 2017115
May 2017159
Apr 2017125
Mar 2017125
Feb 2017125
Jan 2017125
Dec 2016125
Nov 2016125
Oct 2016140
Sept 2016140
Aug 2016140
Jul 2016140
Jun 2016140
May 2016125
Apr 2016125
Mar 2016125
Feb 2016125
Jan 2016125
Dec 2015114
Nov 2015108
Oct 2015140
Aug 2015147
Jul 2015141
Jun 2015134
May 2015127
Apr 2015125
Mar 2015100
Feb 2015100
Jan 201597
Dec 2014100
Nov 2014108
Oct 2014123
Sept 2014122
Aug 2014121
Jul 2014115
Jun 2014120
May 2014120
Apr 2014120
Mar 2014120
Feb 2014120
Jan 2014118
Dec 2013120
Nov 2013113
Oct 2013125
Sept 2013125
Aug 2013140
Jul 2013135
Sept 2012200
Aug 2012206
Jul 2012210
Jun 2012211
Oct 2011164
Sept 2011168
Aug 2011160
Jul 2011153
Jun 2011144
May 2011138
Apr 2011130
Mar 2011129
Feb 2011126
Jan 2011118
Dec 2010110
Nov 2010111
Oct 2010123
Sept 2010128
Aug 2010147
Jul 2010148
Jun 2010142
May 2010140
Apr 2010140
Mar 2010137
Aug 2009160
Jul 2009144
Jun 2009131
May 2009121
Apr 2009126
Mar 2009125
Feb 2009125
Jan 2009106
Dec 200897
Nov 200891.2
Oct 2008117
Sept 2008132
Aug 2008145
Jul 2008135
Jun 2008121
May 2008110
Apr 200899
Mar 200891.7
Feb 200888.8
Jan 200883
Dec 200775
Nov 200775
Oct 200785
Sept 200791.2
Aug 200786.7
Jul 200780
Jun 200778.3
May 200778
Mar 200773.8
Feb 200773.8
Jan 200766.2

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-884-51-retail-kg.