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Rice (imported) in Koumantou

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

452–566

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

441–612

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 452 and 566 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 441 and 612 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Koumantou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 452 and 566 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 441 and 612 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 828); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 466–530 498 451–567 571 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 464–541 499 452–598 577 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 452–566 498 389–685 563 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 445–581 496 397–714 554 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 441–612 490 402–828 542 –
Price history (198 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Oct 2025540
Sept 2025543
Aug 2025548
Jul 2025520
Jun 2025500
May 2025540
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025570
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025570
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024567
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024550
Apr 2024513
Mar 2024500
Jan 2024500
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022458
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022431
Jun 2022425
May 2022425
Apr 2022425
Mar 2022425
Feb 2022425
Jan 2022425
Dec 2021425
Nov 2021433
Oct 2021428
Sept 2021419
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021375
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021390
Feb 2021394
Jan 2021375
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020438
Aug 2020350
Jul 2020350
Jun 2020350
May 2020350
Apr 2020375
Mar 2020375
Feb 2020375
Jan 2020380
Dec 2019375
Nov 2019350
Jul 2019350
Jun 2019375
May 2019350
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018400
May 2018375
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017400
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017369
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017400
Dec 2016400
Nov 2016475
Oct 2016500
Sept 2016433
Aug 2016400
Jul 2016400
Jun 2016400
May 2016400
Apr 2016400
Mar 2016400
Feb 2016400
Jan 2016400
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015400
Oct 2015350
May 2015400
Apr 2015400
Mar 2015400
Feb 2015400
Jan 2015400
Dec 2014375
Nov 2014418
Oct 2014450
Sept 2014423
Aug 2014425
Jul 2014422
Jun 2014400
May 2014400
Apr 2014350
Mar 2014350
Feb 2014350
Jan 2014350
Dec 2013350
Nov 2013350
Oct 2013350
Sept 2013350
Aug 2013350
Jul 2013350
Sept 2012375
Aug 2012375
Jul 2012375
Jun 2012375
Oct 2011375
Sept 2011375
Aug 2011375
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011355
May 2011355
Apr 2011352
Mar 2011362
Feb 2011361
Jan 2011325
Dec 2010325
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010329
Jul 2010328
Jun 2010325
May 2010312
Apr 2010302
Mar 2010320
Aug 2009300
Jul 2009305
Jun 2009325
May 2009325
Apr 2009330
Mar 2009356
Feb 2009375
Jan 2009375
Dec 2008375
Nov 2008375
Oct 2008380
Sept 2008381
Aug 2008375
Jul 2008390
Jun 2008388
May 2008356
Apr 2008335
Mar 2008317
Feb 2008300
Jan 2008295
Dec 2007300
Nov 2007300
Oct 2007300
Sept 2007291
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-884-64-retail-kg.