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Sorghum in Koumantou

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

147–266

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

133–285

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 147 and 266 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 133 and 285 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Koumantou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 147 and 266 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 133 and 285 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 440); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 176–228 201 166–267 284 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 162–249 200 131–358 292 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 147–266 195 120–407 257 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 139–275 190 108–440 250 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 133–285 182 99.9–395 233 –
Price history (202 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026200
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026180
Feb 2026180
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025240
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025200
Aug 2025200
Jul 2025240
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024250
Nov 2024288
Oct 2024300
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024270
Jun 2024206
May 2024210
Apr 2024225
Mar 2024192
Jan 2024175
Nov 2023205
Oct 2023200
Sept 2023200
Aug 2023200
Jul 2023181
Jun 2023213
May 2023225
Apr 2023225
Mar 2023225
Feb 2023225
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022370
Oct 2022400
Sept 2022394
Aug 2022365
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022315
May 2022275
Apr 2022269
Mar 2022245
Feb 2022200
Jan 2022200
Dec 2021185
Nov 2021163
Oct 2021163
Sept 2021180
Aug 2021175
Jul 2021156
Jun 2021150
May 2021150
Apr 2021150
Mar 2021140
Feb 2021125
Jan 2021125
Dec 2020130
Nov 2020150
Oct 2020150
Sept 2020150
Aug 2020150
Jul 2020150
Jun 2020150
May 2020150
Apr 2020145
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019100
Jul 2019100
Jun 2019125
May 2019125
Feb 2019125
Jan 2019175
Nov 2018175
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018225
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018200
May 2018200
Apr 2018175
Mar 2018175
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018181
Dec 2017150
Nov 2017160
Oct 2017175
Sept 2017175
Aug 2017150
Jul 2017139
Jun 2017135
May 2017135
Apr 2017150
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017144
Jan 2017125
Dec 2016125
Nov 2016144
Oct 2016150
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016150
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016125
Mar 2016125
Feb 2016130
Jan 2016137
Dec 2015138
Nov 2015150
Oct 2015150
Aug 2015147
Jul 2015141
Jun 2015135
May 2015133
Apr 2015130
Mar 2015125
Feb 2015125
Jan 2015117
Dec 2014125
Nov 2014126
Oct 2014139
Sept 2014135
Aug 2014134
Jul 2014136
Jun 2014132
May 2014125
Apr 2014125
Mar 2014120
Feb 2014129
Jan 2014125
Dec 2013125
Nov 2013126
Oct 2013127
Sept 2013125
Aug 2013140
Jul 2013134
Sept 2012200
Aug 2012215
Jul 2012226
Jun 2012225
Oct 2011168
Sept 2011167
Aug 2011152
Jul 2011151
Jun 2011144
May 2011138
Apr 2011133
Mar 2011129
Feb 2011126
Jan 2011117
Dec 2010114
Nov 2010116
Oct 2010123
Sept 2010128
Aug 2010148
Jul 2010147
Jun 2010140
May 2010140
Apr 2010142
Mar 2010137
Aug 2009160
Jul 2009150
Jun 2009132
May 2009121
Apr 2009122
Mar 2009122
Feb 2009118
Jan 200996.2
Dec 200896
Nov 200892.5
Oct 2008116
Sept 2008126
Aug 2008138
Jul 2008129
Jun 2008112
May 2008104
Apr 200894
Mar 200891.7
Feb 200888.8
Jan 200881
Dec 200780
Nov 200783.3
Oct 200790
Sept 200795
Aug 200793.3
Jul 200782.5
Jun 200780
May 200782
Mar 200778.8
Feb 200777.5
Jan 200770

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-884-65-retail-kg.