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Rice (local) in Koumantou

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

376–426

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

351–442

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 376 and 426 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 351 and 442 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Koumantou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 376 and 426 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 351 and 442 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 383–422 399 379–437 455 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 381–426 400 365–448 457 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 376–426 400 336–434 459 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 370–429 398 334–437 444 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 351–442 393 314–494 423 –
Price history (188 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026400
Jul 2026400
Jun 2026400
May 2026400
Apr 2026400
Mar 2026400
Feb 2026400
Jan 2026400
Dec 2025400
Oct 2025415
Sept 2025419
Aug 2025424
Jun 2025405
May 2025425
Apr 2025425
Mar 2025420
Feb 2025425
Jan 2025420
Dec 2024431
Nov 2024456
Oct 2024475
Sept 2024475
Aug 2024450
Jul 2024453
Jun 2024450
May 2024450
Apr 2024438
Mar 2024412
Jan 2024413
Nov 2023413
Oct 2023413
Sept 2023413
Aug 2023413
Jul 2023406
Jun 2023388
May 2023400
Apr 2023413
Mar 2023550
Feb 2023550
Dec 2022515
Nov 2022544
Oct 2022550
Sept 2022527
Aug 2022495
Jul 2022460
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022446
Feb 2022430
Jan 2022430
Dec 2021442
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021430
Sept 2021425
Aug 2021411
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021425
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020381
Jul 2020375
Jun 2020375
May 2020375
Apr 2020380
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020375
Jan 2020380
Dec 2019400
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018400
May 2018400
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017375
Nov 2017380
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017395
Jul 2017394
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017381
Dec 2016400
Nov 2016400
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016400
Aug 2016400
Jul 2016400
Jun 2016400
May 2016375
Apr 2016375
Mar 2016375
Feb 2016363
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015388
Nov 2015400
Oct 2015400
May 2015375
Apr 2015375
Mar 2015375
Feb 2015375
Jan 2015370
Dec 2014375
Nov 2014392
Oct 2014377
Sept 2014397
Aug 2014396
Jul 2014400
Jun 2014400
May 2014393
Apr 2014398
Mar 2014400
Feb 2014400
Jan 2014400
Dec 2013400
Nov 2013400
Oct 2013400
Sept 2013400
Aug 2013400
Jul 2013400
Sept 2012425
Aug 2012425
Jul 2012425
Jun 2012425
Oct 2011400
Sept 2011392
Aug 2011377
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011355
May 2011350
Apr 2011350
Mar 2011356
Feb 2011365
Jan 2011352
Dec 2010353
Nov 2010352
Oct 2010355
Sept 2010350
Aug 2010351
Jul 2010352
Jun 2010341
May 2010358
Apr 2010352
Mar 2010342
Aug 2009400
Jul 2009385
Jun 2009375
May 2009350
Apr 2009350
Mar 2009356
Feb 2009375
Jan 2009375
Dec 2008375
Nov 2008388
Oct 2008390
Sept 2008379
Aug 2008367
Jul 2008378
Jun 2008369
May 2008334
Apr 2008315
Mar 2008304
Feb 2008291
Jan 2008288
Dec 2007288
Nov 2007288
Oct 2007288
Sept 2007291
Aug 2007288
Jul 2007291
Jun 2007288
May 2007288
Mar 2007288
Feb 2007289
Jan 2007295

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-884-71-retail-kg.