Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Millet in Koumantou

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

159–347

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

143–328

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 159 and 347 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 143 and 328 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Koumantou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 159 and 347 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 143 and 328 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 834); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 191–276 219 174–370 316 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 178–318 219 145–599 313 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 159–347 211 122–705 280 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 151–371 205 116–834 268 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 143–328 191 107–436 240 –
Price history (193 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026220
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026200
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025290
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025263
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024288
Nov 2024350
Oct 2024390
Sept 2024363
Aug 2024358
Jul 2024320
Jun 2024231
May 2024235
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024217
Jan 2024196
Nov 2023205
Oct 2023244
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023245
Jul 2023188
Jun 2023225
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022395
Oct 2022425
Sept 2022406
Aug 2022370
Jul 2022363
Jun 2022375
May 2022346
Apr 2022319
Mar 2022265
Feb 2022205
Jan 2022219
Dec 2021210
Nov 2021188
Oct 2021175
Sept 2021185
Aug 2021185
Jul 2021175
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021175
Feb 2021153
Jan 2021135
Dec 2020149
Nov 2020181
Oct 2020175
Sept 2020195
Aug 2020181
Jul 2020165
Jun 2020150
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019125
Jul 2019100
Jun 2019150
May 2019150
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019150
Nov 2018150
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018225
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018225
May 2018225
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018183
Jan 2018187
Dec 2017181
Nov 2017220
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017225
Jul 2017206
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Apr 2017181
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017169
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016150
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016158
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016175
May 2016175
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015146
Nov 2015150
Oct 2015150
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015175
May 2015167
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015138
Dec 2014175
Nov 2014169
Oct 2014180
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014178
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014166
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013192
Oct 2013190
Sept 2013150
Aug 2013175
Jul 2013175
Sept 2012275
Aug 2012272
Jul 2012256
Jun 2012250
Oct 2011164
Sept 2011160
Aug 2011160
Jul 2011159
Jun 2011150
May 2011148
Apr 2011140
Mar 2011135
Feb 2011130
Jan 2011125
Dec 2010125
Nov 2010126
Oct 2010128
Sept 2010134
Aug 2010158
Jul 2010156
Jun 2010150
May 2010165
Apr 2010158
Mar 2010137
Nov 2008132
Oct 2008141
Sept 2008139
Aug 2008152
Jul 2008135
Jun 2008121
May 2008112
Apr 2008103
Mar 2008102
Feb 200892.5
Jan 200886
Dec 200786.7
Nov 200785
Oct 200793.8
Sept 2007101
Aug 200799
Jul 200792.5
Jun 200790
May 200787
Mar 200785
Feb 200782.5
Jan 200776.2

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-884-73-retail-kg.