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Food basket in Koumantou

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,912–4,167

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,712–3,938

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,640 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,912 and 4,167 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,712 and 3,938 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Koumantou: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,640 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,912 and 4,167 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,712 and 3,938 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 10,010); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,293–3,308 2,626 2,084–4,445
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,131–3,821 2,628 1,743–7,187
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,912–4,167 2,528 1,461–8,465
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,807–4,458 2,457 1,397–10,010
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,712–3,938 2,295 1,287–5,230
Cost history (193 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,640
Jul 20262,400
Jun 20262,400
May 20262,400
Apr 20262,400
Mar 20262,400
Feb 20262,400
Jan 20263,000
Dec 20253,000
Oct 20253,000
Sept 20253,000
Aug 20253,000
Jul 20253,480
Jun 20253,600
May 20253,600
Apr 20253,600
Mar 20253,000
Feb 20253,156
Jan 20253,000
Dec 20243,456
Nov 20244,200
Oct 20244,680
Sept 20244,356
Aug 20244,296
Jul 20243,840
Jun 20242,772
May 20242,820
Apr 20243,000
Mar 20242,604
Jan 20242,352
Nov 20232,460
Oct 20232,928
Sept 20233,000
Aug 20232,940
Jul 20232,256
Jun 20232,700
May 20233,000
Apr 20233,000
Mar 20233,000
Feb 20233,000
Dec 20223,600
Nov 20224,740
Oct 20225,100
Sept 20224,872
Aug 20224,440
Jul 20224,356
Jun 20224,500
May 20224,152
Apr 20223,828
Mar 20223,180
Feb 20222,460
Jan 20222,628
Dec 20212,520
Nov 20212,256
Oct 20212,100
Sept 20212,220
Aug 20212,220
Jul 20212,100
Jun 20212,100
May 20212,100
Apr 20212,100
Mar 20212,100
Feb 20211,836
Jan 20211,620
Dec 20201,788
Nov 20202,172
Oct 20202,100
Sept 20202,340
Aug 20202,172
Jul 20201,980
Jun 20201,800
May 20201,800
Apr 20201,800
Mar 20201,800
Feb 20201,800
Jan 20201,800
Dec 20191,800
Nov 20191,500
Jul 20191,200
Jun 20191,800
May 20191,800
Feb 20191,800
Jan 20191,800
Nov 20181,800
Oct 20183,000
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20182,700
Jul 20182,700
Jun 20182,700
May 20182,700
Apr 20182,400
Mar 20182,400
Feb 20182,196
Jan 20182,244
Dec 20172,172
Nov 20172,640
Oct 20173,000
Sept 20173,000
Aug 20172,700
Jul 20172,475
Jun 20172,400
May 20172,400
Apr 20172,172
Mar 20172,100
Feb 20172,028
Jan 20171,800
Dec 20162,100
Nov 20162,400
Oct 20161,800
Sept 20161,800
Aug 20161,896
Jul 20162,100
Jun 20162,100
May 20162,100
Apr 20161,800
Mar 20161,800
Feb 20161,800
Jan 20161,800
Dec 20151,752
Nov 20151,800
Oct 20151,800
Aug 20152,100
Jul 20152,100
Jun 20152,100
May 20152,004
Apr 20151,800
Mar 20151,800
Feb 20151,800
Jan 20151,656
Dec 20142,100
Nov 20142,028
Oct 20142,160
Sept 20142,100
Aug 20142,133
Jul 20142,100
Jun 20142,100
May 20142,100
Apr 20142,100
Mar 20141,992
Feb 20142,100
Jan 20142,100
Dec 20132,100
Nov 20132,304
Oct 20132,280
Sept 20131,800
Aug 20132,100
Jul 20132,100
Sept 20123,300
Aug 20123,264
Jul 20123,072
Jun 20123,000
Oct 20111,968
Sept 20111,920
Aug 20111,920
Jul 20111,908
Jun 20111,800
May 20111,782
Apr 20111,677
Mar 20111,620
Feb 20111,560
Jan 20111,500
Dec 20101,500
Nov 20101,506
Oct 20101,542
Sept 20101,610
Aug 20101,890
Jul 20101,866
Jun 20101,800
May 20101,980
Apr 20101,890
Mar 20101,640
Nov 20081,590
Oct 20081,692
Sept 20081,665
Aug 20081,820
Jul 20081,620
Jun 20081,455
May 20081,350
Apr 20081,236
Mar 20081,220
Feb 20081,110
Jan 20081,032
Dec 20071,040
Nov 20071,020
Oct 20071,125
Sept 20071,215
Aug 20071,188
Jul 20071,110
Jun 20071,080
May 20071,044
Mar 20071,020
Feb 2007990
Jan 2007915

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189