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Maize in Koury

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

103–199

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

106–226

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 103 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 106 and 226 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Koury: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 103 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 106 and 226 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 346); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 137–191 164 127–220 243 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 123–199 160 113–265 235 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 103–199 131 99.6–287 178 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 108–214 138 98.3–329 191 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 106–226 136 91.7–346 187 –
Price history (208 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026170
Jul 2026150
Jun 2026150
May 2026150
Apr 2026150
Mar 2026150
Feb 2026150
Jan 2026175
Dec 2025140
Oct 2025163
Sept 2025200
Aug 2025213
Jul 2025225
Jun 2025200
May 2025206
Apr 2025225
Mar 2025225
Feb 2025225
Jan 2025225
Dec 2024225
Nov 2024200
Oct 2024250
Sept 2024275
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024265
Jun 2024221
May 2024208
Apr 2024202
Mar 2024200
Jan 2024175
Nov 2023175
Oct 2023180
Sept 2023200
Aug 2023219
Jul 2023225
Jun 2023238
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022200
Nov 2022200
Oct 2022200
Sept 2022300
Aug 2022320
Jul 2022338
Jun 2022313
May 2022300
Apr 2022288
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022220
Dec 2021200
Nov 2021195
Oct 2021194
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021194
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021175
Feb 2021163
Jan 2021131
Dec 2020125
Nov 2020125
Oct 2020150
Sept 2020150
Aug 2020150
Jul 2020125
Jun 2020125
May 2020125
Apr 2020125
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020100
Dec 2019100
Nov 201975
Jun 2019125
Mar 2019100
Feb 2019110
Jan 201990
Nov 201890
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018175
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018200
May 2018200
Apr 2018180
Mar 2018175
Feb 2018150
Jan 2018150
Dec 2017150
Nov 2017137
Oct 2017140
Sept 2017162
Aug 2017362Data error
Jul 2017150
Jun 2017150
May 2017165
Apr 2017156
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017138
Jan 2017131
Dec 2016125
Nov 2016125
Oct 2016131
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016150
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016141
Feb 2016125
Jan 2016125
Dec 2015130
Nov 2015105
Oct 2015144
Aug 2015150
Jul 2015150
Jun 2015150
May 2015125
Apr 2015125
Mar 2015125
Feb 2015100
Jan 2015100
Dec 2014100
Nov 2014113
Oct 2014125
Sept 2014125
Aug 2014125
Jul 2014125
Jun 2014125
May 2014125
Apr 2014125
Mar 2014125
Feb 2014125
Jan 2014125
Dec 2013133
Nov 2013125
Oct 2013125
Sept 2013125
Aug 2013144
Jul 2013140
Sept 2012213
Aug 2012219
Jul 2012225
Jun 2012224
Oct 2011160
Sept 2011175
Aug 2011173
Jul 2011150
Jun 2011148
May 2011143
Apr 2011125
Mar 2011125
Feb 2011125
Jan 2011130
Dec 2010125
Nov 2010118
Oct 2010108
Sept 2010125
Aug 2010138
Jul 2010149
Jun 2010135
May 2010125
Apr 2010125
Mar 2010129
Feb 2010135
Jan 2010125
Dec 2009125
Nov 2009119
Oct 2009125
Sept 2009175
Aug 2009175
Jul 2009157
Jun 2009150
May 2009150
Apr 2009150
Mar 2009149
Feb 2009150
Jan 2009142
Dec 2008114
Nov 2008108
Oct 2008125
Sept 2008170
Aug 2008174
Jul 2008164
Jun 2008145
May 2008134
Apr 2008118
Mar 2008110
Feb 2008108
Jan 2008100
Dec 2007100
Nov 2007100
Oct 2007105
Sept 2007100
Aug 2007100
Jul 2007100
Jun 2007100
May 2007100
Apr 2007100
Mar 2007100
Feb 200799.2
Jan 200785

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-885-51-retail-kg.