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Rice (imported) in Koury

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 7 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

433–546

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

415–574

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 433 and 546 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 415 and 574 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Koury: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 433 and 546 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 415 and 574 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 444–517 482 442–563 537 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 439–531 482 433–584 542 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 433–546 480 399–624 545 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 425–564 476 384–696 531 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 415–574 468 385–686 519 –
Price history (202 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026490
Jul 2026450
Jun 2026450
May 2026450
Dec 2025520
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025525
Mar 2025550
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025550
Dec 2024590
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024550
May 2024490
Apr 2024470
Mar 2024475
Jan 2024475
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023475
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022440
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022400
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021394
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021375
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021375
May 2021375
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021375
Feb 2021375
Jan 2021375
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020369
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020375
Jul 2020375
Jun 2020375
May 2020375
Apr 2020375
Mar 2020365
Feb 2020350
Jan 2020334
Dec 2019350
Nov 2019400
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019400
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019350
Jan 2019400
Nov 2018400
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018400
May 2018375
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018341
Dec 2017387
Nov 2017375
Oct 2017380
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017400
May 2017410
Apr 2017350
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016350
Apr 2016350
Mar 2016350
Feb 2016350
Jan 2016356
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015375
Oct 2015363
May 2015350
Apr 2015600
Mar 2015600
Feb 2015600
Jan 2015600
Dec 2014600
Nov 2014600
Oct 2014600
Sept 2014600
Aug 2014600
Jul 2014600
Jun 2014600
May 2014600
Apr 2014350
Mar 2014350
Feb 2014350
Jan 2014350
Dec 2013350
Nov 2013350
Oct 2013350
Sept 2013350
Aug 2013350
Jul 2013340
Sept 2012375
Aug 2012375
Jul 2012375
Jun 2012375
Oct 2011375
Sept 2011375
Aug 2011375
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011375
May 2011362
Apr 2011363
Mar 2011350
Feb 2011350
Jan 2011329
Dec 2010325
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010325
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010325
May 2010325
Apr 2010325
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010325
Jan 2010325
Dec 2009325
Nov 2009325
Oct 2009325
Sept 2009325
Aug 2009325
Jul 2009325
Jun 2009328
May 2009335
Apr 2009366
Mar 2009375
Feb 2009375
Jan 2009375
Dec 2008375
Nov 2008375
Oct 2008392
Sept 2008395
Aug 2008395
Jul 2008390
Jun 2008377
May 2008348
Apr 2008344
Mar 2008324
Feb 2008294
Jan 2008275
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007275
Oct 2007275
Sept 2007300
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Apr 2007275
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-885-64-retail-kg.