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Sorghum in Koury

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

126–259

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

118–273

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 126 and 259 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 118 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Koury: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 126 and 259 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 118 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 427); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 161–224 190 138–266 257 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 150–241 188 131–344 256 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 126–259 170 80–410 213 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 120–265 165 80.6–427 213 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 118–273 163 86.9–382 206 –
Price history (209 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026195
Jul 2026175
Jun 2026175
May 2026175
Apr 2026175
Mar 2026159
Feb 2026159
Jan 2026175
Dec 2025151
Oct 2025181
Sept 2025200
Aug 2025213
Jul 2025225
Jun 2025200
May 2025206
Apr 2025231
Mar 2025225
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025225
Dec 2024225
Nov 2024231
Oct 2024300
Sept 2024310
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024290
Jun 2024250
May 2024250
Apr 2024230
Mar 2024206
Jan 2024200
Nov 2023225
Oct 2023230
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023250
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022200
Nov 2022275
Oct 2022340
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022370
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022338
May 2022300
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022263
Feb 2022256
Jan 2022220
Dec 2021200
Nov 2021195
Oct 2021175
Sept 2021175
Aug 2021175
Jul 2021175
Jun 2021169
May 2021150
Apr 2021150
Mar 2021150
Feb 2021150
Jan 2021125
Dec 2020125
Nov 2020140
Oct 2020169
Sept 2020150
Aug 2020150
Jul 2020150
Jun 2020150
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020145
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019150
Nov 201990
Jul 2019125
Jun 2019110
Mar 2019120
Feb 2019120
Jan 2019100
Nov 2018100
Oct 2018175
Sept 2018150
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018220
Jun 2018200
May 2018200
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018190
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017175
Oct 2017185
Sept 2017200
Aug 2017181
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017175
May 2017175
Apr 2017156
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017148
Dec 2016145
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016150
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016150
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015149
Nov 2015134
Oct 2015157
Aug 2015150
Jul 2015150
Jun 2015150
May 2015145
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015125
Jan 2015125
Dec 2014131
Nov 2014150
Oct 2014150
Sept 2014150
Aug 2014150
Jul 2014150
Jun 2014150
May 2014150
Apr 2014150
Mar 2014150
Feb 2014150
Jan 2014150
Dec 2013150
Nov 2013150
Oct 2013150
Sept 2013150
Aug 2013162
Jul 2013140
Sept 2012225
Aug 2012240
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012250
Oct 2011174
Sept 2011175
Aug 2011149
Jul 2011148
Jun 2011129
May 2011125
Apr 2011125
Mar 2011125
Feb 2011125
Jan 2011125
Dec 2010125
Nov 2010116
Oct 2010125
Sept 2010125
Aug 2010138
Jul 2010149
Jun 2010135
May 2010125
Apr 2010125
Mar 2010128
Feb 2010135
Jan 2010125
Dec 2009125
Nov 2009138
Oct 2009150
Sept 2009172
Aug 2009175
Jul 2009158
Jun 2009150
May 2009148
Apr 2009148
Mar 2009149
Feb 2009150
Jan 2009124
Dec 2008100
Nov 2008108
Oct 2008125
Sept 2008150
Aug 2008149
Jul 2008147
Jun 2008128
May 2008124
Apr 2008111
Mar 2008110
Feb 2008108
Jan 2008100
Dec 2007100
Nov 2007110
Oct 2007110
Sept 2007100
Aug 2007100
Jul 2007105
Jun 2007106
May 2007100
Apr 2007100
Mar 2007100
Feb 200799.2
Jan 200785

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-885-65-retail-kg.