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Rice (local) in Koury

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

398–469

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

368–484

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 398 and 469 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 368 and 484 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Koury: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 398 and 469 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 368 and 484 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 416–466 441 404–480 494 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 410–472 442 389–487 499 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 398–469 438 335–470 497 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 387–471 429 344–488 472 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 368–484 419 303–550 464 –
Price history (195 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026445
Jul 2026425
Jun 2026425
May 2026425
Apr 2026425
Mar 2026425
Feb 2026425
Jan 2026425
Dec 2025458
Oct 2025425
Sept 2025425
Aug 2025425
Jun 2025425
May 2025431
Apr 2025450
Mar 2025500
Feb 2025483
Jan 2025500
Dec 2024560
Nov 2024575
Oct 2024575
Sept 2024535
Aug 2024517
Jul 2024461
Jun 2024405
May 2024405
Apr 2024412
Mar 2024412
Jan 2024413
Nov 2023488
Oct 2023488
Sept 2023475
Aug 2023449
Jul 2023445
Jun 2023445
May 2023445
Apr 2023445
Mar 2023425
Feb 2023425
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022441
Oct 2022438
Sept 2022438
Aug 2022428
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022390
May 2022380
Apr 2022380
Mar 2022380
Feb 2022374
Jan 2022368
Dec 2021368
Nov 2021383
Oct 2021393
Sept 2021387
Aug 2021383
Jul 2021363
Jun 2021368
May 2021349
Apr 2021355
Mar 2021337
Feb 2021339
Dec 2020323
Nov 2020338
Oct 2020363
Sept 2020363
Aug 2020358
Jul 2020350
Jun 2020350
May 2020350
Apr 2020341
Mar 2020337
Feb 2020337
Jan 2020334
Dec 2019330
Aug 2018384
Jul 2018377
Jun 2018375
May 2018371
Apr 2018357
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018350
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017350
Nov 2017356
Oct 2017362
Sept 2017365
Aug 2017362
Jul 2017362
Jun 2017364
May 2017363
Apr 2017353
Mar 2017341
Feb 2017338
Jan 2017328
Dec 2016325
Nov 2016325
Oct 2016342
Sept 2016349
Aug 2016343
Jul 2016338
Jun 2016338
May 2016338
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016325
Feb 2016325
Jan 2016329
Dec 2015338
Nov 2015344
Oct 2015353
May 2015348
Apr 2015338
Mar 2015325
Feb 2015325
Jan 2015325
Dec 2014325
Nov 2014328
Oct 2014363
Sept 2014353
Aug 2014347
Jul 2014339
Jun 2014338
May 2014325
Apr 2014325
Mar 2014325
Feb 2014325
Jan 2014325
Dec 2013329
Nov 2013331
Oct 2013338
Sept 2013338
Aug 2013338
Jul 2013330
Sept 2012375
Aug 2012387
Jul 2012393
Jun 2012404
Oct 2011362
Sept 2011370
Aug 2011364
Jul 2011350
Jun 2011350
May 2011338
Apr 2011312
Mar 2011312
Feb 2011316
Jan 2011312
Dec 2010312
Nov 2010314
Oct 2010315
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010322
Jul 2010329
Jun 2010320
May 2010315
Apr 2010312
Mar 2010312
Feb 2010312
Jan 2010312
Dec 2009312
Nov 2009325
Oct 2009350
Sept 2009362
Aug 2009355
Jul 2009350
Jun 2009351
May 2009350
Apr 2009356
Mar 2009364
Feb 2009372
Jan 2009375
Dec 2008366
Nov 2008356
Oct 2008403
Sept 2008404
Aug 2008381
Jul 2008367
Jun 2008361
May 2008344
Apr 2008343
Mar 2008310
Feb 2008292
Jan 2008275
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007288
Oct 2007299
Sept 2007298
Aug 2007300
Jul 2007300
Jun 2007298
May 2007300
Apr 2007288
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-885-71-retail-kg.