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Maize in Koutiala

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 35% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

114–186

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

113–208

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 114 and 186 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 113 and 208 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Koutiala: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 114 and 186 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 113 and 208 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 142–179 155 132–192 253 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 125–182 150 104–225 222 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 114–186 139 91.4–240 206 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 111–199 142 86–300 207 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 113–208 139 90.6–301 205 –
Price history (215 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026156
Jul 2026160
Jun 2026150
May 2026150
Apr 2026150
Mar 2026150
Feb 2026150
Jan 2026160
Dec 2025150
Oct 2025160
Sept 2025175
Aug 2025194
Jul 2025220
Jun 2025225
May 2025225
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025220
Feb 2025238
Jan 2025220
Dec 2024200
Nov 2024200
Oct 2024230
Sept 2024275
Aug 2024275
Jul 2024275
Jun 2024213
May 2024200
Apr 2024198
Mar 2024190
Jan 2024175
Nov 2023175
Oct 2023188
Sept 2023225
Aug 2023205
Jul 2023206
Jun 2023225
May 2023225
Apr 2023225
Mar 2023225
Feb 2023225
Dec 2022225
Nov 2022213
Oct 2022231
Sept 2022330
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022350
May 2022338
Apr 2022294
Mar 2022255
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022238
Dec 2021225
Nov 2021225
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021195
Jul 2021178
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021170
Mar 2021189
Feb 2021164
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020148
Oct 2020170
Sept 2020156
Aug 2020168
Jul 2020137
Jun 2020125
May 2020125
Apr 2020125
Mar 2020111
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019125
Nov 2019106
Oct 2019124
Sept 2019136
Aug 2019145
Jul 2019125
Jun 2019130
May 2019131
Apr 2019125
Mar 2019125
Feb 2019125
Jan 2019150
Dec 2018150
Nov 2018150
Oct 2018177
Sept 2018225
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018198
Jun 2018182
May 2018175
Apr 2018175
Mar 2018162
Feb 2018150
Jan 2018150
Dec 2017150
Nov 2017140
Oct 2017163
Sept 2017187
Aug 2017368Data error
Jul 2017150
Jun 2017165
May 2017150
Apr 2017150
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017131
Jan 2017125
Dec 2016125
Nov 2016125
Oct 2016133
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016153
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016139
Mar 2016144
Feb 2016133
Jan 2016137
Dec 2015133
Nov 2015150
Oct 2015169
Aug 2015153
Jul 2015150
Jun 2015150
May 2015143
Apr 2015125
Mar 2015125
Feb 2015125
Jan 2015100
Dec 2014117
Nov 2014100
Oct 2014133
Sept 2014133
Aug 2014125
Jul 2014118
Jun 2014115
May 2014110
Apr 2014113
Mar 2014110
Feb 2014114
Jan 2014117
Dec 2013118
Nov 2013118
Oct 2013113
Sept 2013120
Aug 2013120
Jul 2013124
Sept 2012200
Aug 2012203
Jul 2012210
Jun 2012208
Oct 2011145
Sept 2011167
Aug 2011147
Jul 2011142
Jun 2011133
May 2011127
Apr 2011121
Mar 2011116
Feb 2011119
Jan 2011115
Dec 2010115
Nov 2010102
Oct 201093.8
Sept 2010113
Aug 2010124
Jul 2010130
Jun 2010127
May 2010125
Apr 2010124
Mar 2010121
Feb 2010128
Jan 2010129
Dec 2009121
Nov 2009102
Oct 2009109
Sept 2009150
Aug 2009157
Jul 2009146
Jun 2009140
May 2009138
Apr 2009130
Mar 2009138
Feb 2009140
Jan 2009135
Dec 2008113
Nov 2008102
Oct 2008115
Sept 2008160
Aug 2008154
Jul 2008156
Jun 2008143
May 2008124
Apr 2008112
Mar 2008106
Feb 2008105
Jan 2008103
Dec 200798.5
Nov 2007100
Oct 200795
Sept 200798.3
Aug 200797.6
Jul 200791.8
Jun 200782.5
May 200781.2
Apr 200779.5
Mar 200779.9
Feb 200780
Jan 200775.2

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-886-51-retail-kg.