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Sorghum in Koutiala

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 35% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

121–202

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

112–221

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 121 and 202 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 112 and 221 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Koutiala: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 121 and 202 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 112 and 221 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 147–181 158 130–200 247 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 131–193 156 104–238 235 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 121–202 154 99.7–273 227 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 113–210 145 93.7–311 206 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 112–221 143 89.2–307 202 –
Price history (215 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026156
Jul 2026160
Jun 2026150
May 2026150
Apr 2026150
Mar 2026150
Feb 2026150
Jan 2026160
Dec 2025150
Oct 2025165
Sept 2025175
Aug 2025194
Jul 2025220
Jun 2025200
May 2025210
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025220
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025220
Dec 2024200
Nov 2024238
Oct 2024305
Sept 2024325
Aug 2024325
Jul 2024325
Jun 2024238
May 2024225
Apr 2024225
Mar 2024225
Jan 2024175
Nov 2023225
Oct 2023225
Sept 2023231
Aug 2023230
Jul 2023225
Jun 2023225
May 2023225
Apr 2023231
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022275
Oct 2022350
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022375
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022350
May 2022338
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022290
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022225
Dec 2021200
Nov 2021200
Oct 2021188
Sept 2021175
Aug 2021175
Jul 2021174
Jun 2021171
May 2021155
Apr 2021162
Mar 2021164
Feb 2021149
Jan 2021142
Dec 2020161
Nov 2020175
Oct 2020173
Sept 2020175
Aug 2020170
Jul 2020154
Jun 2020145
May 2020150
Apr 2020141
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019114
Oct 2019124
Sept 2019155
Aug 2019170
Jul 2019143
Jun 2019130
May 2019146
Apr 2019150
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019131
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018175
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018215
Sept 2018231
Aug 2018222
Jul 2018231
Jun 2018227
May 2018227
Apr 2018225
Mar 2018206
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018193
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017215
Oct 2017225
Sept 2017225
Aug 2017195
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017170
May 2017175
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017156
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016150
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016150
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015150
Nov 2015175
Oct 2015175
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015175
May 2015165
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015125
Dec 2014150
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014175
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014172
Jul 2014152
Jun 2014145
May 2014137
Apr 2014130
Mar 2014130
Feb 2014140
Jan 2014140
Dec 2013130
Nov 2013130
Oct 2013130
Sept 2013130
Aug 2013127
Jul 2013128
Sept 2012225
Aug 2012225
Jul 2012230
Jun 2012230
Oct 2011166
Sept 2011161
Aug 2011135
Jul 2011135
Jun 2011127
May 2011123
Apr 2011116
Mar 2011115
Feb 2011120
Jan 2011114
Dec 2010110
Nov 2010103
Oct 2010110
Sept 2010123
Aug 2010126
Jul 2010132
Jun 2010128
May 2010120
Apr 2010120
Mar 2010120
Feb 2010128
Jan 2010128
Dec 2009118
Nov 2009109
Oct 2009128
Sept 2009172
Aug 2009163
Jul 2009157
Jun 2009148
May 2009136
Apr 2009125
Mar 2009126
Feb 2009128
Jan 2009123
Dec 200899
Nov 200898.2
Oct 2008116
Sept 2008147
Aug 2008137
Jul 2008139
Jun 2008131
May 2008113
Apr 2008100
Mar 2008101
Feb 2008105
Jan 2008103
Dec 200792.5
Nov 2007101
Oct 2007105
Sept 2007105
Aug 2007105
Jul 2007104
Jun 200791.1
May 200781.1
Apr 200785
Mar 200786.3
Feb 200796
Jan 200785.2

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-886-65-retail-kg.