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Rice (local) in Koutiala

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

375–467

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

362–506

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 375 and 467 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 362 and 506 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Koutiala: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 375 and 467 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 362 and 506 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 668); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 398–461 420 395–487 495 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 394–470 421 388–517 499 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 375–467 415 347–534 479 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 375–491 413 348–605 473 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 362–506 404 339–668 453 –
Price history (199 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026422
Jul 2026408
Jun 2026396
May 2026412
Apr 2026422
Mar 2026438
Feb 2026438
Jan 2026438
Dec 2025456
Oct 2025463
Sept 2025463
Aug 2025444
Jun 2025438
May 2025453
Apr 2025488
Mar 2025475
Feb 2025469
Jan 2025475
Dec 2024469
Nov 2024475
Oct 2024523
Sept 2024525
Aug 2024525
Jul 2024531
Jun 2024525
May 2024485
Apr 2024464
Mar 2024450
Jan 2024438
Nov 2023438
Oct 2023450
Sept 2023445
Jul 2023416
Jun 2023445
May 2023456
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022459
Oct 2022475
Sept 2022468
Aug 2022441
Jul 2022413
Jun 2022413
May 2022413
Apr 2022409
Mar 2022390
Feb 2022388
Jan 2022388
Dec 2021393
Nov 2021394
Oct 2021394
Sept 2021385
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021369
May 2021353
Apr 2021357
Mar 2021362
Feb 2021350
Jan 2021250
Dec 2020343
Nov 2020344
Oct 2020364
Sept 2020363
Jul 2020362
Jun 2020363
May 2020350
Apr 2020348
Mar 2020340
Feb 2020340
Jan 2020337
Dec 2019343
Nov 2019352
Oct 2019362
Sept 2019338
Jul 2019325
Jun 2019336
May 2019325
Apr 2019325
Mar 2019328
Feb 2019328
Jan 2019369
Dec 2018350
Nov 2018369
Oct 2018392
Sept 2018396
Jul 2018388
Jun 2018394
May 2018398
Apr 2018385
Mar 2018371
Feb 2018361
Jan 2018358
Dec 2017359
Nov 2017364
Oct 2017372
Sept 2017381
Jul 2017362
Jun 2017373
May 2017375
Apr 2017356
Mar 2017342
Feb 2017338
Jan 2017338
Dec 2016338
Nov 2016325
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016346
Jul 2016338
Jun 2016344
May 2016344
Apr 2016350
Mar 2016350
Feb 2016331
Jan 2016354
Dec 2015341
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015388
May 2015338
Apr 2015325
Mar 2015313
Feb 2015313
Jan 2015313
Dec 2014319
Nov 2014303
Oct 2014329
Sept 2014325
Aug 2014331
Jul 2014316
Jun 2014313
May 2014309
Apr 2014270
Feb 2014273
Jan 2014290
Dec 2013290
Nov 2013293
Oct 2013300
Sept 2013300
Jul 2013300
Sept 2012375
Jul 2012400
Jun 2012419
Oct 2011382
Sept 2011384
Jul 2011350
Jun 2011350
May 2011350
Apr 2011331
Mar 2011307
Feb 2011300
Jan 2011300
Dec 2010309
Nov 2010320
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010325
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010325
May 2010325
Apr 2010325
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010325
Jan 2010325
Dec 2009315
Nov 2009300
Oct 2009333
Sept 2009348
Aug 2009350
Jul 2009350
Jun 2009350
May 2009342
Apr 2009340
Mar 2009340
Feb 2009340
Jan 2009340
Dec 2008332
Nov 2008319
Oct 2008370
Sept 2008395
Aug 2008375
Jul 2008375
Jun 2008356
May 2008329
Apr 2008325
Mar 2008298
Feb 2008275
Jan 2008275
Dec 2007272
Nov 2007275
Oct 2007286
Sept 2007285
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007275
May 2007274
Apr 2007262
Mar 2007253
Feb 2007250
Jan 2007251

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-886-71-retail-kg.