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Millet in Koutiala

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

179–360

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

161–360

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 41% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 179 and 360 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 161 and 360 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Koutiala: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 41% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 179 and 360 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 161 and 360 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 593); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 200–321 265 156–352 312 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 190–338 261 180–439 299 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 179–360 249 173–520 294 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 154–368 215 110–593 263 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 161–360 210 127–458 262 –
Price history (215 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026281
Jul 2026210
Jun 2026200
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025225
Oct 2025210
Sept 2025225
Aug 2025244
Jul 2025275
Jun 2025250
May 2025260
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025270
Feb 2025313
Jan 2025270
Dec 2024256
Nov 2024319
Oct 2024385
Sept 2024394
Aug 2024375
Jul 2024375
Jun 2024325
May 2024275
Apr 2024275
Mar 2024275
Jan 2024225
Nov 2023225
Oct 2023231
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023230
Jul 2023231
Jun 2023250
May 2023256
Apr 2023294
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023300
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022356
Oct 2022438
Sept 2022440
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022394
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022320
Feb 2022350
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021222
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021175
Jun 2021178
May 2021178
Apr 2021182
Mar 2021195
Feb 2021181
Jan 2021162
Dec 2020186
Nov 2020214
Oct 2020235
Sept 2020248
Aug 2020214
Jul 2020183
Jun 2020167
May 2020173
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020158
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019150
Oct 2019148
Sept 2019180
Aug 2019195
Jul 2019168
Jun 2019157
May 2019175
Apr 2019175
Mar 2019175
Feb 2019156
Jan 2019225
Dec 2018207
Nov 2018225
Oct 2018225
Sept 2018236
Aug 2018237
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018242
May 2018250
Apr 2018231
Mar 2018225
Feb 2018225
Jan 2018218
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017281
Sept 2017275
Aug 2017270
Jul 2017269
Jun 2017225
May 2017206
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016179
Nov 2016198
Oct 2016192
Sept 2016188
Aug 2016199
Jul 2016193
Jun 2016175
May 2016175
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015175
Oct 2015194
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015183
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015175
Feb 2015175
Jan 2015175
Dec 2014175
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014180
Jun 2014175
May 2014172
Apr 2014160
Mar 2014160
Feb 2014166
Jan 2014169
Dec 2013170
Nov 2013180
Oct 2013176
Sept 2013175
Aug 2013177
Jul 2013182
Sept 2012270
Aug 2012275
Jul 2012271
Jun 2012268
Oct 2011155
Sept 2011142
Aug 2011138
Jul 2011140
Jun 2011137
May 2011135
Apr 2011129
Mar 2011130
Feb 2011130
Jan 2011126
Dec 2010122
Nov 2010113
Oct 2010116
Sept 2010138
Aug 2010151
Jul 2010159
Jun 2010152
May 2010140
Apr 2010139
Mar 2010139
Feb 2010143
Jan 2010140
Dec 2009137
Nov 2009155
Oct 2009166
Sept 2009193
Aug 2009182
Jul 2009165
Jun 2009160
May 2009151
Apr 2009141
Mar 2009141
Feb 2009140
Jan 2009135
Dec 2008120
Nov 2008132
Oct 2008154
Sept 2008162
Aug 2008154
Jul 2008155
Jun 2008143
May 2008125
Apr 2008111
Mar 2008111
Feb 2008110
Jan 2008106
Dec 200797
Nov 2007107
Oct 2007105
Sept 2007105
Aug 2007105
Jul 2007104
Jun 200793.9
May 200787.9
Apr 200795
Mar 200795.2
Feb 200797.5
Jan 200790.2

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-886-73-retail-kg.