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Food basket in Koutiala

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,146–4,324

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,934–4,321

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,375 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,146 and 4,324 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,934 and 4,321 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Koutiala: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,375 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,146 and 4,324 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,934 and 4,321 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,115); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,394–3,855 3,183 1,869–4,230
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,285–4,062 3,137 2,165–5,264
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,146–4,324 2,987 2,075–6,239
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,852–4,415 2,582 1,317–7,115
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,934–4,321 2,524 1,521–5,493
Cost history (215 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,375
Jul 20262,520
Jun 20262,400
May 20262,400
Apr 20262,400
Mar 20262,400
Feb 20262,400
Jan 20262,700
Dec 20252,700
Oct 20252,520
Sept 20252,700
Aug 20252,928
Jul 20253,300
Jun 20253,000
May 20253,120
Apr 20253,600
Mar 20253,240
Feb 20253,756
Jan 20253,240
Dec 20243,072
Nov 20243,828
Oct 20244,620
Sept 20244,728
Aug 20244,500
Jul 20244,500
Jun 20243,900
May 20243,300
Apr 20243,300
Mar 20243,300
Jan 20242,700
Nov 20232,700
Oct 20232,772
Sept 20233,000
Aug 20232,760
Jul 20232,772
Jun 20233,000
May 20233,072
Apr 20233,528
Mar 20233,600
Feb 20233,600
Dec 20223,600
Nov 20224,272
Oct 20225,256
Sept 20225,280
Aug 20224,800
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,728
Apr 20224,500
Mar 20223,840
Feb 20224,200
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,000
Nov 20213,000
Oct 20212,700
Sept 20212,664
Aug 20212,400
Jul 20212,100
Jun 20212,136
May 20212,133
Apr 20212,184
Mar 20212,340
Feb 20212,172
Jan 20211,944
Dec 20202,232
Nov 20202,568
Oct 20202,820
Sept 20202,976
Aug 20202,568
Jul 20202,196
Jun 20202,004
May 20202,076
Apr 20201,800
Mar 20201,800
Feb 20201,800
Jan 20201,896
Dec 20191,800
Nov 20191,800
Oct 20191,776
Sept 20192,160
Aug 20192,340
Jul 20192,016
Jun 20191,884
May 20192,100
Apr 20192,100
Mar 20192,100
Feb 20191,872
Jan 20192,700
Dec 20182,484
Nov 20182,700
Oct 20182,700
Sept 20182,832
Aug 20182,844
Jul 20182,700
Jun 20182,904
May 20183,000
Apr 20182,772
Mar 20182,700
Feb 20182,700
Jan 20182,616
Dec 20172,400
Nov 20173,000
Oct 20173,372
Sept 20173,300
Aug 20173,240
Jul 20173,225
Jun 20172,700
May 20172,472
Apr 20172,400
Mar 20172,400
Feb 20172,400
Jan 20172,100
Dec 20162,148
Nov 20162,376
Oct 20162,304
Sept 20162,256
Aug 20162,388
Jul 20162,316
Jun 20162,100
May 20162,100
Apr 20162,100
Mar 20162,100
Feb 20162,100
Jan 20162,100
Dec 20152,100
Nov 20152,100
Oct 20152,328
Aug 20152,400
Jul 20152,400
Jun 20152,400
May 20152,196
Apr 20152,100
Mar 20152,100
Feb 20152,100
Jan 20152,100
Dec 20142,100
Nov 20142,400
Oct 20142,400
Sept 20142,400
Aug 20142,400
Jul 20142,160
Jun 20142,100
May 20142,060
Apr 20141,920
Mar 20141,920
Feb 20141,992
Jan 20142,028
Dec 20132,040
Nov 20132,160
Oct 20132,112
Sept 20132,100
Aug 20132,124
Jul 20132,190
Sept 20123,240
Aug 20123,300
Jul 20123,252
Jun 20123,216
Oct 20111,860
Sept 20111,704
Aug 20111,660
Jul 20111,680
Jun 20111,644
May 20111,620
Apr 20111,545
Mar 20111,560
Feb 20111,560
Jan 20111,515
Dec 20101,464
Nov 20101,360
Oct 20101,395
Sept 20101,656
Aug 20101,815
Jul 20101,905
Jun 20101,820
May 20101,680
Apr 20101,665
Mar 20101,665
Feb 20101,720
Jan 20101,680
Dec 20091,644
Nov 20091,860
Oct 20091,990
Sept 20092,320
Aug 20092,180
Jul 20091,975
Jun 20091,920
May 20091,815
Apr 20091,692
Mar 20091,692
Feb 20091,686
Jan 20091,622
Dec 20081,434
Nov 20081,587
Oct 20081,853
Sept 20081,938
Aug 20081,854
Jul 20081,855
Jun 20081,719
May 20081,500
Apr 20081,332
Mar 20081,332
Feb 20081,320
Jan 20081,267
Dec 20071,164
Nov 20071,279
Oct 20071,260
Sept 20071,256
Aug 20071,262
Jul 20071,245
Jun 20071,127
May 20071,055
Apr 20071,140
Mar 20071,142
Feb 20071,170
Jan 20071,083

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189