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Maize in Lafiabougou

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

206–319

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

188–342

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 206 and 319 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 188 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Lafiabougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 206 and 319 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 188 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 598); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 226–275 247 196–324 318 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 216–288 244 190–351 326 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 206–319 239 181–525 320 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 196–330 232 174–598 293 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 188–342 228 154–523 279 –
Price history (213 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026230
Feb 2026230
Jan 2026238
Dec 2025240
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025260
Aug 2025275
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025275
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024290
Nov 2024313
Oct 2024330
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024280
Jun 2024269
May 2024256
Apr 2024255
Mar 2024263
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023290
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023255
Jul 2023275
Jun 2023269
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023300
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022300
Sept 2022344
Aug 2022355
Jul 2022331
Jun 2022363
May 2022345
Apr 2022319
Mar 2022265
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021245
Oct 2021269
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021231
Jun 2021225
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021175
Dec 2020175
Nov 2020194
Oct 2020194
Sept 2020175
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020175
May 2020175
Apr 2020175
Mar 2020175
Feb 2020175
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019175
Aug 2018206
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018200
May 2018200
Apr 2018187
Mar 2018175
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018175
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017175
Oct 2017195
Sept 2017200
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017188
May 2017200
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016194
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016194
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016195
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016181
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015175
Oct 2015194
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015181
Jun 2015175
May 2015175
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015163
Jan 2015175
Dec 2014175
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014175
Sept 2014188
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013175
Aug 2013175
Jul 2013175
Jun 2013175
May 2013194
Apr 2013180
Mar 2013182
Feb 2013200
Jan 2013182
Nov 2012175
Oct 2012235
Sept 2012248
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012250
May 2012250
Apr 2012250
Mar 2012244
Feb 2012225
Jan 2012250
Nov 2011225
Oct 2011225
Sept 2011206
Aug 2011190
Jul 2011194
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011173
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010162
Nov 2010160
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010181
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010180
May 2010175
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010175
Dec 2009175
Nov 2009181
Oct 2009185
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009191
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009180
Feb 2009181
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008150
Nov 2008162
Oct 2008188
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008198
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008175
May 2008162
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007144
Jul 2007130
Jun 2007125
May 2007125
Apr 2007125
Mar 2007131
Feb 2007131
Jan 2007125

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-887-51-retail-kg.