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Sorghum in Lafiabougou

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

217–293

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

198–303

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 217 and 293 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 198 and 303 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Lafiabougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 217 and 293 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 198 and 303 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 241–272 252 211–299 343 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 229–284 254 192–350 347 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 217–293 249 177–357 340 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 200–301 243 162–375 306 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 198–303 241 161–337 298 –
Price history (213 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026250
Jul 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026262
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025300
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024320
Nov 2024363
Oct 2024380
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024330
Jun 2024300
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023300
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023300
Dec 2022350
Nov 2022380
Oct 2022444
Sept 2022438
Aug 2022420
Jul 2022394
Jun 2022394
May 2022385
Apr 2022350
Mar 2022335
Feb 2022313
Jan 2022263
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021235
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021220
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Feb 2021181
Jan 2021175
Dec 2020175
Nov 2020194
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020193
Dec 2019200
Aug 2018256
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018225
Dec 2017225
Nov 2017231
Oct 2017245
Sept 2017243
Aug 2017210
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017180
Dec 2016181
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016181
Dec 2015185
Nov 2015194
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015200
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015200
Dec 2014200
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014200
Dec 2013200
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013190
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Jun 2013200
May 2013200
Apr 2013200
Mar 2013200
Feb 2013200
Jan 2013200
Nov 2012250
Oct 2012290
Sept 2012295
Aug 2012294
Jul 2012290
Jun 2012275
May 2012280
Apr 2012275
Mar 2012269
Feb 2012250
Jan 2012250
Nov 2011225
Oct 2011206
Sept 2011194
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011173
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010162
Nov 2010160
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010194
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010180
May 2010175
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010175
Dec 2009175
Nov 2009194
Oct 2009190
Sept 2009205
Aug 2009206
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009184
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009169
Dec 2008145
Nov 2008156
Oct 2008188
Sept 2008198
Aug 2008194
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008156
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007125
May 2007140
Apr 2007131
Mar 2007148
Feb 2007141
Jan 2007125

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-887-65-retail-kg.