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Millet in Lafiabougou

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 30% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

240–353

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

217–397

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 240 and 353 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 217 and 397 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Lafiabougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 240 and 353 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 217 and 397 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 538); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 254–325 269 243–327 400 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 246–339 269 232–343 402 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 240–353 269 219–355 405 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 233–367 266 224–442 364 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 217–397 262 186–538 337 –
Price history (214 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026262
Jul 2026300
Jun 2026300
May 2026300
Apr 2026300
Mar 2026300
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026300
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025350
Sept 2025350
Aug 2025350
Jul 2025350
Jun 2025350
May 2025350
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025344
Feb 2025350
Jan 2025344
Dec 2024380
Nov 2024413
Oct 2024430
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024380
Jun 2024300
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023350
Oct 2023350
Sept 2023350
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023350
Jun 2023350
May 2023350
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023350
Feb 2023350
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022430
Oct 2022444
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022425
Jul 2022413
Jun 2022406
May 2022415
Apr 2022394
Mar 2022340
Feb 2022325
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021255
Oct 2021244
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021245
Jul 2021225
Jun 2021225
May 2021225
Apr 2021250
Mar 2021240
Feb 2021206
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020220
Nov 2020244
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020250
Aug 2020225
Jul 2020206
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019200
Aug 2018256
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018256
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017256
Nov 2017275
Oct 2017275
Sept 2017275
Aug 2017260
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017250
May 2017245
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017225
Feb 2017219
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016213
Nov 2016230
Oct 2016225
Sept 2016225
Aug 2016225
Jul 2016225
Jun 2016225
May 2016225
Apr 2016225
Mar 2016225
Feb 2016213
Jan 2016206
Dec 2015225
Nov 2015225
Oct 2015225
Aug 2015225
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015225
May 2015225
Apr 2015225
Mar 2015208
Feb 2015213
Jan 2015225
Dec 2014225
Nov 2014225
Oct 2014225
Sept 2014225
Aug 2014225
Jul 2014225
Jun 2014225
May 2014225
Apr 2014225
Mar 2014225
Feb 2014225
Jan 2014225
Dec 2013225
Nov 2013225
Oct 2013225
Sept 2013225
Aug 2013242
Jul 2013225
Jun 2013225
May 2013225
Apr 2013231
Mar 2013231
Feb 2013250
Jan 2013240
Nov 2012300
Oct 2012325
Sept 2012320
Aug 2012325
Jul 2012315
Jun 2012300
May 2012305
Apr 2012294
Mar 2012269
Feb 2012250
Jan 2012250
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011181
Sept 2011175
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011174
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010175
Nov 2010175
Oct 2010181
Sept 2010200
Aug 2010205
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010185
May 2010188
Apr 2010194
Mar 2010195
Feb 2010200
Jan 2010200
Dec 2009200
Nov 2009219
Oct 2009220
Sept 2009241
Aug 2009206
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009191
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008170
Nov 2008181
Oct 2008194
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008200
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008175
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007162
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007144
May 2007150
Apr 2007150
Mar 2007150
Feb 2007150
Jan 2007150

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-887-73-retail-kg.