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Food basket in Lafiabougou

Bamako, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,880–4,232

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,610–4,762

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,150 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,880 and 4,232 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,610 and 4,762 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Lafiabougou: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,150 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,880 and 4,232 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,610 and 4,762 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 6,450); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,049–3,902 3,226 2,914–3,925
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,954–4,072 3,232 2,778–4,117
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,880–4,232 3,233 2,624–4,255
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,795–4,404 3,197 2,694–5,301
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,610–4,762 3,145 2,230–6,450
Cost history (214 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,150
Jul 20263,600
Jun 20263,600
May 20263,600
Apr 20263,600
Mar 20263,600
Feb 20263,600
Jan 20263,600
Dec 20253,600
Oct 20254,200
Sept 20254,200
Aug 20254,200
Jul 20254,200
Jun 20254,200
May 20254,200
Apr 20254,200
Mar 20254,128
Feb 20254,200
Jan 20254,128
Dec 20244,560
Nov 20244,956
Oct 20245,160
Sept 20244,800
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,560
Jun 20243,600
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,600
Jan 20243,600
Nov 20234,200
Oct 20234,200
Sept 20234,200
Aug 20234,200
Jul 20234,200
Jun 20234,200
May 20234,200
Apr 20234,200
Mar 20234,200
Feb 20234,200
Dec 20224,800
Nov 20225,160
Oct 20225,328
Sept 20225,400
Aug 20225,100
Jul 20224,956
Jun 20224,872
May 20224,980
Apr 20224,728
Mar 20224,080
Feb 20223,900
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,600
Nov 20213,060
Oct 20212,928
Sept 20213,000
Aug 20212,940
Jul 20212,700
Jun 20212,700
May 20212,700
Apr 20213,000
Mar 20212,880
Feb 20212,472
Jan 20212,400
Dec 20202,640
Nov 20202,928
Oct 20203,000
Sept 20203,000
Aug 20202,700
Jul 20202,472
Jun 20202,400
May 20202,400
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,400
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20202,400
Dec 20192,400
Aug 20183,072
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,072
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20183,000
Dec 20173,072
Nov 20173,300
Oct 20173,300
Sept 20173,300
Aug 20173,120
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20173,000
May 20172,940
Apr 20172,700
Mar 20172,700
Feb 20172,628
Jan 20172,400
Dec 20162,556
Nov 20162,760
Oct 20162,700
Sept 20162,700
Aug 20162,700
Jul 20162,700
Jun 20162,700
May 20162,700
Apr 20162,700
Mar 20162,700
Feb 20162,556
Jan 20162,472
Dec 20152,700
Nov 20152,700
Oct 20152,700
Aug 20152,700
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,700
May 20152,700
Apr 20152,700
Mar 20152,496
Feb 20152,556
Jan 20152,700
Dec 20142,700
Nov 20142,700
Oct 20142,700
Sept 20142,700
Aug 20142,700
Jul 20142,700
Jun 20142,700
May 20142,700
Apr 20142,700
Mar 20142,700
Feb 20142,700
Jan 20142,700
Dec 20132,700
Nov 20132,700
Oct 20132,700
Sept 20132,700
Aug 20132,904
Jul 20132,700
Jun 20132,700
May 20132,700
Apr 20132,772
Mar 20132,775
Feb 20133,000
Jan 20132,880
Nov 20123,600
Oct 20123,900
Sept 20123,840
Aug 20123,900
Jul 20123,780
Jun 20123,600
May 20123,660
Apr 20123,525
Mar 20123,225
Feb 20123,000
Jan 20123,000
Nov 20112,400
Oct 20112,175
Sept 20112,100
Aug 20112,100
Jul 20112,100
Jun 20112,100
May 20112,100
Apr 20112,100
Mar 20112,088
Feb 20112,100
Jan 20112,100
Dec 20102,100
Nov 20102,100
Oct 20102,175
Sept 20102,400
Aug 20102,460
Jul 20102,400
Jun 20102,220
May 20102,250
Apr 20102,325
Mar 20102,340
Feb 20102,400
Jan 20102,400
Dec 20092,400
Nov 20092,625
Oct 20092,640
Sept 20092,892
Aug 20092,475
Jul 20092,400
Jun 20092,292
May 20092,100
Apr 20092,100
Mar 20092,100
Feb 20092,100
Jan 20092,100
Dec 20082,040
Nov 20082,175
Oct 20082,325
Sept 20082,400
Aug 20082,400
Jul 20082,340
Jun 20082,100
May 20081,800
Apr 20081,800
Mar 20081,800
Feb 20081,800
Jan 20081,800
Dec 20071,950
Nov 20071,800
Oct 20071,800
Sept 20071,800
Aug 20071,800
Jul 20071,800
Jun 20071,725
May 20071,800
Apr 20071,800
Mar 20071,800
Feb 20071,800
Jan 20071,800

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189