Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Maize in Loulouni

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 39% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

108–178

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

105–198

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 39% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 108 and 178 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 105 and 198 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Loulouni: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 39% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 108 and 178 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 105 and 198 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 137–170 149 128–190 264 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 126–182 149 119–224 262 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 108–178 134 88.4–235 203 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 109–195 136 98.1–313 209 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 105–198 133 81.5–290 195 –
Price history (211 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026149
Jul 2026150
Jun 2026150
May 2026150
Apr 2026144
Mar 2026159
Feb 2026159
Jan 2026171
Dec 2025175
Oct 2025165
Sept 2025186
Aug 2025195
Jul 2025224
Jun 2025225
May 2025225
Apr 2025225
Mar 2025200
Feb 2025219
Jan 2025200
Dec 2024200
Nov 2024189
Oct 2024256
Sept 2024279
Aug 2024268
Jul 2024243
Jun 2024221
May 2024211
Apr 2024199
Mar 2024193
Jan 2024175
Nov 2023192
Oct 2023200
Sept 2023225
Aug 2023215
Jul 2023200
Jun 2023201
May 2023218
Apr 2023225
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022225
Nov 2022235
Oct 2022251
Sept 2022287
Aug 2022298
Jul 2022283
Jun 2022296
May 2022297
Apr 2022275
Mar 2022240
Feb 2022223
Jan 2022199
Dec 2021200
Nov 2021185
Oct 2021194
Sept 2021224
Aug 2021204
Jul 2021191
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021161
Mar 2021155
Feb 2021150
Jan 2021125
Dec 2020125
Nov 2020132
Oct 2020140
Sept 2020148
Aug 2020125
Jul 2020124
Jun 2020124
May 2020125
Apr 2020122
Mar 2020110
Feb 2020106
Jan 2020103
Dec 2019100
Nov 2019100
Jul 2019125
Jun 2019125
May 2019115
Apr 2019133
Mar 2019125
Feb 2019125
Jan 2019100
Nov 2018100
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018185
Aug 2018175
Jul 2018175
Jun 2018164
May 2018162
Apr 2018156
Mar 2018150
Feb 2018146
Jan 2018125
Dec 2017125
Nov 2017125
Oct 2017135
Sept 2017150
Aug 2017362Data error
Jul 2017125
Jun 2017125
May 2017125
Apr 2017124
Mar 2017123
Feb 2017119
Jan 2017112
Dec 2016116
Nov 2016100
Oct 2016125
Sept 2016126
Aug 2016129
Jul 2016128
Jun 2016139
May 2016141
Apr 2016125
Mar 2016123
Feb 2016119
Jan 2016116
Dec 2015111
Nov 2015109
Oct 2015143
Aug 2015133
Jul 2015128
Jun 2015125
May 2015116
Apr 2015110
Mar 2015100
Feb 2015100
Jan 2015100
Dec 201499
Nov 2014100
Oct 2014113
Sept 2014110
Aug 2014110
Jul 2014110
Jun 2014110
May 2014108
Apr 2014109
Mar 2014110
Feb 2014108
Jan 2014113
Dec 2013120
Nov 2013120
Oct 2013121
Sept 2013125
Aug 2013125
Jul 2013125
Sept 2012197
Aug 2012197
Jul 2012200
Jun 2012200
Oct 2011115
Sept 2011152
Aug 2011150
Jul 2011137
Jun 2011126
May 2011124
Apr 2011112
Mar 2011110
Feb 2011110
Jan 2011110
Dec 2010102
Nov 2010100
Oct 2010102
Sept 2010106
Aug 2010124
Jul 2010125
Jun 2010125
May 2010125
Apr 2010124
Mar 2010125
Feb 2010125
Jan 2010125
Dec 2009110
Nov 200998.8
Oct 2009118
Sept 2009144
Aug 2009160
Jul 2009154
Jun 2009142
May 2009135
Apr 2009133
Mar 2009135
Feb 2009135
Jan 2009124
Dec 2008100
Nov 200898.3
Oct 2008122
Sept 2008162
Aug 2008158
Jul 2008167
Jun 2008141
May 2008126
Apr 2008121
Mar 2008101
Feb 2008100
Jan 2008100
Dec 200790.2
Nov 200797.3
Oct 2007108
Sept 2007105
Aug 200799.7
Jul 200789.8
Jun 200780.8
May 200780
Apr 200775
Mar 200775.3
Feb 200772.3
Jan 200769.4

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-889-51-retail-kg.