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Rice (imported) in Loulouni

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

470–539

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

454–615

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 470 and 539 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 454 and 615 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Loulouni: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 470 and 539 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 454 and 615 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 885); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 486–526 499 464–556 575 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 480–530 499 450–558 576 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 470–539 499 387–591 577 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 464–559 498 393–659 569 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 454–615 494 399–885 559 –
Price history (194 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025550
May 2025550
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025588
Jan 2025600
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024600
Jul 2024600
Jun 2024600
May 2024600
Apr 2024600
Mar 2024583
Jan 2024500
Nov 2023497
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023495
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022493
Oct 2022499
Sept 2022480
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022431
Jun 2022428
May 2022431
Apr 2022419
Mar 2022405
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021398
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021398
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021397
Mar 2021388
Feb 2021375
Jan 2021375
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020388
Aug 2020375
Jul 2020375
Jun 2020375
May 2020375
Apr 2020375
Mar 2020375
Feb 2020375
Jan 2020326
Dec 2019362
Nov 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Apr 2019379
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018375
Mar 2018375
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017375
Nov 2017375
Oct 2017375
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017375
May 2017375
Apr 2017350
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016350
Apr 2016350
Mar 2016350
Feb 2016352
Jan 2016352
Dec 2015354
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015350
May 2015350
Apr 2015350
Mar 2015350
Feb 2015350
Jan 2015350
Dec 2014350
Nov 2014350
Oct 2014250
Sept 2014350
Aug 2014350
Jul 2014350
Jun 2014350
May 2014350
Apr 2014350
Mar 2014350
Feb 2014350
Jan 2014350
Dec 2013350
Nov 2013354
Oct 2013353
Sept 2013350
Aug 2013350
Jul 2013356
Sept 2012350
Aug 2012350
Jul 2012356
Jun 2012356
Oct 2011350
Sept 2011350
Aug 2011350
Jul 2011350
Jun 2011350
May 2011350
Apr 2011350
Mar 2011340
Feb 2011300
Jan 2011300
Dec 2010300
Nov 2010300
Oct 2010300
Sept 2010300
Aug 2010300
Jul 2010300
Jun 2010300
May 2010300
Dec 2009300
Nov 2009300
Oct 2009300
Sept 2009305
Aug 2009319
Jul 2009321
Jun 2009325
May 2009325
Nov 2008350
Oct 2008350
Sept 2008355
Aug 2008353
Jul 2008392
Apr 2008325
Jan 2008250
Nov 2007275
Oct 2007275
Sept 2007262
Aug 2007250
Jul 2007250
Jun 2007250
May 2007250
Apr 2007250
Mar 2007250
Feb 2007250
Jan 2007250

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-889-64-retail-kg.