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Sorghum in Loulouni

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

215–343

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

191–369

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 215 and 343 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 191 and 369 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Loulouni: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 215 and 343 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 191 and 369 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 559); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 247–306 275 243–358 354 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 237–321 274 227–406 360 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 215–343 266 179–458 343 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 211–366 260 179–559 333 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 191–369 240 144–495 292 –
Price history (210 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026278
Jul 2026262
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026260
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025300
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025302
Feb 2025313
Jan 2025302
Dec 2024325
Nov 2024358
Oct 2024370
Sept 2024370
Aug 2024370
Jul 2024338
Jun 2024303
May 2024288
Apr 2024272
Mar 2024268
Jan 2024275
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023295
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023295
Jun 2023300
May 2023305
Apr 2023320
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023300
Dec 2022350
Nov 2022401
Oct 2022409
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022356
Jul 2022348
Jun 2022348
May 2022330
Apr 2022335
Mar 2022301
Feb 2022228
Jan 2022204
Dec 2021200
Nov 2021201
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021209
Jul 2021174
Jun 2021156
May 2021158
Apr 2021153
Mar 2021152
Feb 2021150
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020177
Oct 2020183
Sept 2020182
Aug 2020179
Jul 2020179
Jun 2020178
May 2020178
Apr 2020173
Mar 2020175
Feb 2020170
Jan 2020155
Dec 2019264
Nov 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019306
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019175
Nov 2018175
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018248
May 2018250
Apr 2018212
Mar 2018207
Feb 2018206
Jan 2018197
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017226
Oct 2017225
Sept 2017202
Aug 2017186
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017175
May 2017171
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017153
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016150
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016150
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016147
Jan 2016148
Dec 2015144
Nov 2015172
Oct 2015175
Aug 2015172
Jul 2015173
Jun 2015154
May 2015150
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015125
Jan 2015147
Dec 2014150
Nov 2014167
Oct 2014150
Sept 2014150
Aug 2014150
Jul 2014150
Jun 2014150
May 2014150
Apr 2014150
Mar 2014150
Feb 2014145
Jan 2014145
Dec 2013150
Nov 2013150
Oct 2013150
Sept 2013150
Aug 2013150
Jul 2013150
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012240
Jul 2012244
Jun 2012225
Oct 2011170
Sept 2011150
Aug 2011150
Jul 2011150
Jun 2011150
May 2011150
Apr 2011131
Mar 2011125
Feb 2011125
Jan 2011125
Dec 2010125
Nov 2010125
Oct 2010125
Sept 2010125
Aug 2010144
Jul 2010150
Jun 2010150
May 2010131
Apr 2010140
Mar 2010150
Feb 2010144
Jan 2010125
Dec 2009117
Nov 2009138
Oct 2009150
Sept 2009160
Aug 2009164
Jul 2009158
Jun 2009142
May 2009135
Apr 2009131
Mar 2009128
Feb 2009128
Jan 2009120
Dec 2008100
Nov 2008112
Oct 2008147
Sept 2008164
Aug 2008156
Jul 2008169
Jun 2008138
May 2008125
Apr 2008125
Mar 2008125
Feb 2008125
Jan 2008105
Dec 2007125
Nov 2007125
Oct 2007125
Sept 2007125
Aug 2007105
Jul 2007100
Jun 2007100
May 2007100
Mar 200788.5
Feb 200775
Jan 200773.8

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-889-65-retail-kg.