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Rice (local) in Loulouni

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

398–522

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

368–526

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 398 and 522 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 368 and 526 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Loulouni: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 398 and 522 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 368 and 526 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 414–490 431 407–500 556 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 410–498 432 395–518 553 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 398–522 430 351–616 539 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 384–539 424 340–724 520 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 368–526 418 316–649 498 –
Price history (197 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026431
Jul 2026442
Jun 2026440
May 2026442
Apr 2026443
Mar 2026446
Feb 2026446
Jan 2026472
Dec 2025475
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025525
Jun 2025550
May 2025550
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025552
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025552
Dec 2024559
Nov 2024541
Oct 2024585
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024575
Jul 2024536
Jun 2024524
May 2024516
Apr 2024518
Mar 2024472
Jan 2024450
Nov 2023474
Oct 2023474
Sept 2023473
Aug 2023475
Jul 2023474
Jun 2023473
May 2023474
Apr 2023475
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Dec 2022463
Nov 2022464
Oct 2022474
Sept 2022468
Aug 2022432
Jul 2022403
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022399
Mar 2022397
Feb 2022386
Jan 2022381
Dec 2021388
Nov 2021396
Oct 2021403
Sept 2021400
Aug 2021389
Jul 2021388
Jun 2021386
May 2021375
Apr 2021378
Mar 2021367
Feb 2021362
Jan 2021292
Dec 2020345
Nov 2020359
Oct 2020380
Sept 2020384
Aug 2020363
Jul 2020365
Jun 2020361
May 2020356
Apr 2020341
Mar 2020337
Feb 2020331
Jan 2020326
Dec 2019328
Apr 2019306
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018360
Mar 2018359
Feb 2018358
Jan 2018353
Dec 2017365
Nov 2017368
Oct 2017378
Sept 2017390
Aug 2017362
Jul 2017362
Jun 2017363
May 2017363
Apr 2017349
Mar 2017336
Feb 2017334
Jan 2017333
Dec 2016338
Nov 2016338
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016349
Aug 2016351
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016351
May 2016348
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016329
Feb 2016325
Jan 2016322
Dec 2015335
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015378
May 2015338
Apr 2015318
Mar 2015324
Feb 2015309
Jan 2015318
Dec 2014319
Nov 2014330
Oct 2014325
Sept 2014327
Aug 2014323
Jul 2014327
Jun 2014315
May 2014319
Apr 2014314
Mar 2014314
Feb 2014314
Jan 2014316
Dec 2013330
Nov 2013338
Oct 2013335
Sept 2013324
Aug 2013325
Jul 2013325
Sept 2012350
Aug 2012350
Jul 2012350
Jun 2012350
Oct 2011367
Sept 2011389
Aug 2011362
Jul 2011350
Jun 2011335
May 2011330
Apr 2011325
Mar 2011300
Feb 2011275
Jan 2011275
Dec 2010280
Nov 2010300
Oct 2010300
Sept 2010300
Aug 2010288
Jul 2010300
Jun 2010300
May 2010295
Apr 2010260
Mar 2010250
Feb 2010250
Jan 2010250
Dec 2009260
Nov 2009300
Oct 2009305
Sept 2009325
Aug 2009325
Jul 2009325
Jun 2009325
May 2009325
Apr 2009325
Mar 2009325
Feb 2009325
Jan 2009320
Dec 2008288
Nov 2008301
Oct 2008347
Sept 2008350
Aug 2008350
Jul 2008350
Jun 2008319
May 2008295
Apr 2008275
Mar 2008275
Feb 2008248
Jan 2008250
Dec 2007225
Nov 2007248
Oct 2007275
Sept 2007250
Aug 2007250
Jul 2007250
Jun 2007250
May 2007250
Apr 2007225
Mar 2007215
Feb 2007200
Jan 2007200

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-889-71-retail-kg.