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Food basket in Loulouni

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,203–4,188

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,138–4,005

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,400 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,203 and 4,188 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,138 and 4,005 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Loulouni: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,400 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,203 and 4,188 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,138 and 4,005 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,322–3,879 2,639 2,110–4,889
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,249–4,237 2,644 1,959–5,115
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,203–4,188 2,630 1,791–4,636
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,115–4,090 2,570 1,846–4,375
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,138–4,005 2,557 2,064–4,671
Cost history (211 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,400
Jul 20263,420
Jun 20263,480
May 20263,360
Apr 20263,420
Mar 20263,600
Feb 20263,600
Jan 20264,032
Dec 20254,200
Oct 20254,440
Sept 20254,536
Aug 20254,512
Jul 20254,212
Jun 20254,680
May 20254,728
Apr 20254,800
Mar 20254,272
Feb 20254,692
Jan 20254,272
Dec 20244,680
Nov 20245,244
Oct 20245,400
Sept 20245,040
Aug 20245,136
Jul 20244,740
Jun 20244,236
May 20244,200
Apr 20244,140
Mar 20244,080
Jan 20243,600
Nov 20234,164
Oct 20234,140
Sept 20234,236
Aug 20234,176
Jul 20233,876
Jun 20233,936
May 20234,200
Apr 20234,440
Mar 20234,200
Feb 20234,200
Dec 20225,100
Nov 20225,676
Oct 20225,820
Sept 20225,664
Aug 20225,376
Jul 20225,388
Jun 20225,376
May 20225,352
Apr 20225,292
Mar 20224,212
Feb 20223,576
Jan 20223,480
Dec 20213,576
Nov 20213,180
Oct 20212,796
Sept 20212,724
Aug 20212,748
Jul 20212,712
Jun 20212,700
May 20212,700
Apr 20212,700
Mar 20212,700
Feb 20212,712
Jan 20212,640
Dec 20202,676
Nov 20203,000
Oct 20203,000
Sept 20203,000
Aug 20203,000
Jul 20202,772
Jun 20202,712
May 20202,700
Apr 20202,712
Mar 20202,700
Feb 20202,700
Jan 20202,616
Dec 20193,168
Nov 20193,000
Jul 20193,000
Jun 20193,000
May 20192,400
Apr 20192,832
Mar 20193,000
Feb 20193,000
Jan 20193,300
Nov 20183,300
Oct 20183,300
Sept 20183,300
Aug 20183,300
Jul 20183,204
Jun 20183,288
May 20183,324
Apr 20183,096
Mar 20183,024
Feb 20183,060
Jan 20183,084
Dec 20173,396
Nov 20173,600
Oct 20173,600
Sept 20173,612
Aug 20173,192
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20172,940
May 20172,916
Apr 20172,760
Mar 20172,664
Feb 20172,664
Jan 20172,628
Dec 20162,856
Nov 20162,772
Oct 20162,532
Sept 20162,628
Aug 20162,652
Jul 20162,652
Jun 20162,640
May 20162,640
Apr 20162,700
Mar 20162,712
Feb 20162,592
Jan 20162,520
Dec 20152,664
Nov 20152,628
Oct 20152,724
Aug 20152,796
Jul 20152,892
Jun 20152,856
May 20152,700
Apr 20152,496
Mar 20152,664
Feb 20152,664
Jan 20152,664
Dec 20142,616
Nov 20142,904
Oct 20143,000
Sept 20142,928
Aug 20142,892
Jul 20142,952
Jun 20142,904
May 20142,768
Apr 20142,928
Mar 20142,856
Feb 20142,928
Jan 20142,940
Dec 20132,928
Nov 20132,904
Oct 20133,000
Sept 20133,000
Aug 20132,971
Jul 20133,000
Sept 20123,900
Aug 20123,720
Jul 20123,600
Jun 20123,600
Oct 20112,400
Sept 20112,400
Aug 20112,400
Jul 20112,400
Jun 20112,400
May 20112,175
Apr 20112,100
Mar 20112,100
Feb 20112,100
Jan 20112,100
Dec 20102,100
Nov 20102,100
Oct 20102,100
Sept 20102,100
Aug 20102,175
Jul 20102,100
Jun 20102,100
May 20102,100
Apr 20102,100
Mar 20102,100
Feb 20102,250
Jan 20102,100
Dec 20092,400
Nov 20092,500
Oct 20092,700
Sept 20092,400
Aug 20092,320
Jul 20092,124
Jun 20092,073
May 20092,090
Apr 20092,036
Mar 20091,830
Feb 20091,800
Jan 20091,788
Dec 20081,800
Nov 20082,265
Oct 20082,160
Sept 20082,243
Aug 20082,100
Jul 20082,100
Jun 20081,800
May 20081,800
Apr 20081,800
Mar 20081,800
Feb 20081,800
Jan 20081,800
Dec 20071,800
Nov 20071,680
Oct 20071,800
Sept 20071,800
Aug 20071,800
Jul 20071,790
Jun 20071,650
May 20071,533
Apr 20071,800
Mar 20071,500
Feb 20071,500
Jan 20071,500

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189