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Maize in Magnambougou

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

176–281

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

163–351

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 176 and 281 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 163 and 351 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Magnambougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 176 and 281 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 163 and 351 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 768); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 188–243 211 173–276 301 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 180–263 209 162–370 298 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 176–281 204 173–458 300 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 165–300 197 163–568 270 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 163–351 196 150–768 263 –
Price history (213 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026212
Jun 2026225
May 2026225
Apr 2026238
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025200
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025263
Jul 2025290
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025280
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025275
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024270
Nov 2024300
Oct 2024320
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024280
Jun 2024250
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023244
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023275
Feb 2023275
Dec 2022275
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022300
Sept 2022325
Aug 2022325
Jul 2022325
Jun 2022350
May 2022350
Apr 2022294
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021245
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021240
Jul 2021225
Jun 2021205
May 2021200
Apr 2021212
Mar 2021205
Feb 2021175
Jan 2021175
Dec 2020175
Nov 2020175
Oct 2020175
Sept 2020195
Aug 2020181
Jul 2020156
Jun 2020150
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019150
Aug 2018218
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018200
May 2018200
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018175
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018180
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017193
Aug 2017395Data error
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016180
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015150
Nov 2015181
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015181
Jul 2015181
Jun 2015175
May 2015175
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015150
Dec 2014163
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014175
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Jun 2013200
May 2013200
Apr 2013200
Mar 2013188
Feb 2013188
Jan 2013185
Nov 2012200
Oct 2012220
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012250
May 2012240
Apr 2012250
Mar 2012244
Feb 2012225
Jan 2012240
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011225
Sept 2011212
Aug 2011195
Jul 2011188
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010162
Nov 2010150
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010181
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010180
May 2010175
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010175
Dec 2009165
Nov 2009175
Oct 2009180
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009198
Jun 2009190
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009169
Dec 2008150
Nov 2008156
Oct 2008188
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008198
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008175
May 2008175
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007148
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007148
Jul 2007125
Jun 2007125
May 2007130
Apr 2007125
Mar 2007125
Feb 2007141
Jan 2007125

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-890-51-retail-kg.