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Sorghum in Magnambougou

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

219–296

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

207–308

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 219 and 296 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 207 and 308 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Magnambougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 219 and 296 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 207 and 308 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 240–285 262 218–301 345 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 226–292 260 192–307 344 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 219–296 255 186–322 346 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 203–308 252 167–345 317 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 207–308 249 184–322 311 –
Price history (213 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026262
Jul 2026262
Jun 2026275
May 2026275
Apr 2026288
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026288
Dec 2025260
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025313
Jul 2025330
Jun 2025350
May 2025313
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024320
Nov 2024350
Oct 2024370
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024325
Jun 2024275
May 2024275
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023300
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023300
Dec 2022363
Nov 2022385
Oct 2022414
Sept 2022403
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022381
Jun 2022400
May 2022390
Apr 2022338
Mar 2022305
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022256
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021230
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020220
Aug 2020206
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020181
Dec 2019175
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018225
Feb 2018225
Jan 2018230
Dec 2017225
Nov 2017237
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017210
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017190
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016185
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016181
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015188
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015200
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015175
Dec 2014188
Nov 2014213
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014200
Dec 2013200
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Jun 2013200
May 2013200
Apr 2013200
Mar 2013200
Feb 2013200
Jan 2013200
Nov 2012250
Oct 2012290
Sept 2012300
Aug 2012300
Jul 2012305
Jun 2012300
May 2012280
Apr 2012275
Mar 2012269
Feb 2012250
Jan 2012250
Nov 2011225
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011188
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010162
Nov 2010150
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010181
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010180
May 2010175
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010175
Dec 2009165
Nov 2009188
Oct 2009190
Sept 2009225
Aug 2009206
Jul 2009198
Jun 2009190
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009169
Dec 2008150
Nov 2008162
Oct 2008185
Sept 2008185
Aug 2008181
Jul 2008193
Jun 2008162
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007148
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007145
Jun 2007138
May 2007150
Apr 2007131
Mar 2007150
Feb 2007141
Jan 2007130

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-890-65-retail-kg.