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Rice (local) in Medine

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

455–519

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

447–558

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 455 and 519 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 447 and 558 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Medine: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 455 and 519 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 447 and 558 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 477–520 498 465–544 551 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 472–524 499 447–548 550 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 455–519 495 401–546 538 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 452–545 496 408–636 535 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 447–558 491 412–672 541 –
Price history (205 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026490
Feb 2026490
Dec 2025500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jun 2025550
May 2025550
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025550
Dec 2024550
Nov 2024538
Oct 2024540
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024538
Jul 2024510
Jun 2024500
May 2024500
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024500
Jan 2024500
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023525
May 2023515
Apr 2023506
Mar 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022550
Sept 2022506
Aug 2022465
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022425
May 2022425
Apr 2022425
Mar 2022425
Feb 2022425
Jan 2022425
Dec 2021425
Nov 2021425
Oct 2021425
Sept 2021425
Aug 2021405
Jul 2021394
Jun 2021380
May 2021400
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021375
Feb 2021375
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020375
Jul 2020375
Jun 2020375
May 2020375
Apr 2020375
Mar 2020375
Dec 2019375
Nov 2019375
Oct 2019375
Sept 2019375
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
Apr 2019375
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018410
Sept 2018425
Aug 2018425
Jul 2018425
Jun 2018425
May 2018405
Apr 2018387
Mar 2018375
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017375
Nov 2017366
Oct 2017375
Sept 2017393
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017390
Apr 2017375
Mar 2017375
Feb 2017375
Jan 2017375
Dec 2016375
Nov 2016380
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016400
Aug 2016400
Jul 2016375
Jun 2016375
May 2016375
Apr 2016375
Mar 2016375
Jan 2016375
Dec 2015375
Nov 2015363
Oct 2015400
May 2015383
Apr 2015365
Mar 2015360
Feb 2015368
Jan 2015363
Dec 2014373
Nov 2014360
Oct 2014365
Sept 2014361
Aug 2014362
Jul 2014355
Jun 2014350
May 2014368
Apr 2014356
Mar 2014350
Dec 2013353
Nov 2013360
Oct 2013360
Sept 2013368
Aug 2013375
Jul 2013365
Jun 2013365
May 2013365
Apr 2013362
Mar 2013365
Jan 2013373
Nov 2012375
Oct 2012390
Sept 2012400
Aug 2012400
Jul 2012401
Jun 2012441
May 2012450
Apr 2012438
Feb 2012398
Jan 2012400
Nov 2011375
Oct 2011400
Sept 2011400
Aug 2011393
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011372
May 2011368
Apr 2011350
Mar 2011350
Feb 2011350
Jan 2011350
Dec 2010350
Nov 2010350
Oct 2010356
Sept 2010350
Aug 2010350
Jul 2010350
Jun 2010350
May 2010350
Apr 2010350
Feb 2010350
Dec 2009350
Nov 2009344
Oct 2009360
Sept 2009400
Aug 2009385
Jul 2009375
Jun 2009375
May 2009356
Apr 2009350
Dec 2008360
Nov 2008350
Oct 2008406
Sept 2008405
Aug 2008400
Jul 2008398
Jun 2008369
May 2008350
Apr 2008345
Mar 2008312
Dec 2007300
Nov 2007300
Oct 2007300
Sept 2007300
Aug 2007300
Jul 2007300
Jun 2007300
May 2007300
Apr 2007298
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-891-71-retail-kg.