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Millet in Medine

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

228–391

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

221–404

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 228 and 391 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 221 and 404 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Medine: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 228 and 391 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 221 and 404 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 649); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 246–344 283 227–395 379 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 238–363 283 215–452 382 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 228–391 279 185–488 375 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 220–425 276 216–649 360 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 221–404 268 209–450 362 –
Price history (203 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026288
Jul 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026263
Mar 2026300
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025325
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025338
Jul 2025320
Jun 2025300
May 2025338
Apr 2025350
Feb 2025362
Dec 2024370
Nov 2024400
Oct 2024440
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024385
Jun 2024300
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024338
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023330
Sept 2023331
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023313
Jun 2023300
May 2023325
Apr 2023350
Dec 2022425
Nov 2022420
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022420
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022410
Apr 2022363
Mar 2022320
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021255
Oct 2021238
Sept 2021244
Aug 2021240
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Dec 2020230
Nov 2020250
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020245
Aug 2020213
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020180
Feb 2020175
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019175
Nov 2019175
Oct 2019185
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
Apr 2019200
Jan 2019237
Dec 2018206
Nov 2018238
Oct 2018235
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018265
Apr 2018268
Jan 2018255
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017275
Oct 2017290
Sept 2017275
Aug 2017255
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017244
May 2017230
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017206
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016205
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Dec 2015200
Nov 2015219
Oct 2015225
Aug 2015225
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015225
May 2015225
Apr 2015225
Mar 2015208
Feb 2015206
Jan 2015225
Dec 2014225
Nov 2014225
Oct 2014225
Sept 2014225
Aug 2014225
Jul 2014225
Jun 2014225
May 2014242
Apr 2014229
Mar 2014225
Feb 2014225
Jan 2014225
Dec 2013231
Nov 2013235
Oct 2013236
Sept 2013225
Aug 2013244
Jul 2013250
Jun 2013250
May 2013250
Apr 2013242
Mar 2013250
Feb 2013250
Jan 2013250
Nov 2012300
Oct 2012318
Sept 2012323
Aug 2012325
Jul 2012305
Jun 2012300
May 2012300
Apr 2012300
Jan 2012255
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011175
Aug 2011185
Jul 2011178
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011176
Mar 2011176
Dec 2010169
Nov 2010175
Oct 2010194
Sept 2010200
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010200
May 2010188
Apr 2010200
Dec 2009190
Nov 2009212
Oct 2009215
Sept 2009230
Aug 2009212
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009191
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008175
Nov 2008181
Oct 2008200
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008194
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008175
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007144
May 2007150
Apr 2007150
Mar 2007150
Feb 2007150
Jan 2007150

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-891-73-retail-kg.