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Food basket in Medine

Bamako, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,738–4,691

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,650–4,847

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,450 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,738 and 4,691 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,650 and 4,847 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Medine: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,450 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,738 and 4,691 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,650 and 4,847 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,785); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,955–4,127 3,395 2,723–4,743
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,858–4,354 3,398 2,575–5,419
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,738–4,691 3,345 2,215–5,862
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,635–5,097 3,306 2,591–7,785
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,650–4,847 3,219 2,510–5,401
Cost history (203 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,450
Jul 20263,000
Jun 20263,000
May 20263,000
Apr 20263,156
Mar 20263,600
Dec 20253,600
Oct 20253,900
Sept 20253,600
Aug 20254,056
Jul 20253,840
Jun 20253,600
May 20254,056
Apr 20254,200
Feb 20254,350
Dec 20244,440
Nov 20244,800
Oct 20245,280
Sept 20244,800
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,620
Jun 20243,600
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,600
Jan 20244,056
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20233,960
Sept 20233,972
Aug 20234,200
Jul 20233,756
Jun 20233,600
May 20233,900
Apr 20234,200
Dec 20225,100
Nov 20225,040
Oct 20225,400
Sept 20225,400
Aug 20225,040
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,920
Apr 20224,356
Mar 20223,840
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,600
Nov 20213,060
Oct 20212,856
Sept 20212,928
Aug 20212,880
Jul 20212,400
Jun 20212,400
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,400
Dec 20202,760
Nov 20203,000
Oct 20203,000
Sept 20202,940
Aug 20202,556
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,400
May 20202,400
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,160
Feb 20202,100
Jan 20202,100
Dec 20192,100
Nov 20192,100
Oct 20192,220
Sept 20192,400
Aug 20192,400
Jul 20192,400
Jun 20192,400
Apr 20192,400
Jan 20192,844
Dec 20182,472
Nov 20182,850
Oct 20182,820
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,180
Apr 20183,216
Jan 20183,060
Dec 20173,000
Nov 20173,300
Oct 20173,480
Sept 20173,300
Aug 20173,060
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20172,928
May 20172,760
Apr 20172,700
Mar 20172,472
Dec 20162,400
Nov 20162,460
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20162,400
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,400
Jun 20162,400
May 20162,400
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,400
Feb 20162,400
Dec 20152,400
Nov 20152,628
Oct 20152,700
Aug 20152,700
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,700
May 20152,700
Apr 20152,700
Mar 20152,496
Feb 20152,472
Jan 20152,700
Dec 20142,700
Nov 20142,700
Oct 20142,700
Sept 20142,700
Aug 20142,700
Jul 20142,700
Jun 20142,700
May 20142,900
Apr 20142,748
Mar 20142,700
Feb 20142,700
Jan 20142,700
Dec 20132,772
Nov 20132,820
Oct 20132,832
Sept 20132,700
Aug 20132,928
Jul 20133,000
Jun 20133,000
May 20133,000
Apr 20132,904
Mar 20133,000
Feb 20133,000
Jan 20133,000
Nov 20123,600
Oct 20123,816
Sept 20123,876
Aug 20123,900
Jul 20123,660
Jun 20123,600
May 20123,600
Apr 20123,600
Jan 20123,060
Nov 20112,400
Oct 20112,400
Sept 20112,100
Aug 20112,220
Jul 20112,130
Jun 20112,100
May 20112,100
Apr 20112,115
Mar 20112,112
Dec 20102,025
Nov 20102,100
Oct 20102,325
Sept 20102,400
Aug 20102,400
Jul 20102,400
Jun 20102,400
May 20102,250
Apr 20102,400
Dec 20092,280
Nov 20092,550
Oct 20092,580
Sept 20092,760
Aug 20092,550
Jul 20092,400
Jun 20092,292
May 20092,100
Apr 20092,100
Mar 20092,100
Feb 20092,100
Jan 20092,100
Dec 20082,100
Nov 20082,175
Oct 20082,400
Sept 20082,400
Aug 20082,325
Jul 20082,340
Jun 20082,100
May 20081,800
Apr 20081,800
Jan 20081,800
Dec 20071,800
Nov 20071,800
Oct 20071,800
Sept 20071,800
Aug 20071,800
Jul 20071,800
Jun 20071,725
May 20071,800
Apr 20071,800
Mar 20071,800
Feb 20071,800
Jan 20071,800

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189