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Beans (niebe) in Mopti Guangal

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

480–763

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

374–843

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 18 markets in Mali, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 480 and 763 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 374 and 843 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Beans (niebe), Mopti Guangal: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 18 markets in Mali, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 480 and 763 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 374 and 843 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,078); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 579–706 631 531–738 688 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 541–755 635 480–881 681 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 480–763 617 332–906 651 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 448–824 628 295–962 679 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 374–843 575 187–1,078 613 –
Price history (131 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026630
Jul 2026610
Jun 2026615
May 2026530
Apr 2026600
Mar 2026554
Feb 2026562
Jan 2026614
Dec 2025700
Oct 2025700
Sept 2025667
Aug 2025674
Jul 2025659
Jun 2025700
May 2025700
Apr 2025635
Mar 2025594
Feb 2025588
Jan 2025594
Dec 2024618
Nov 2024548
Oct 2024717
Sept 2024840
Aug 2024672
Jul 2024679
Jun 2024548
May 2024548
Apr 2024541
Mar 2024510
Jan 2024417
Nov 2023406
Oct 2023411
Jul 2023470
Jun 2023462
May 2023462
Apr 2023462
Nov 2022541
Oct 2022541
Sept 2022547
Aug 2022678
Jul 2022639
Jun 2022625
May 2022700
Apr 2022694
Mar 2022650
Feb 2022645
Jan 2022635
Dec 2021635
Nov 2021635
Oct 2021635
Sept 2021476
Aug 2021476
Jul 2021476
Jun 2021476
May 2021476
Apr 2021456
Mar 2021437
Feb 2021394
Jan 2021368
Dec 2020410
Nov 2020410
Oct 2020395
Sept 2020363
Aug 2020352
Jul 2020308
Jun 2020308
May 2020308
Apr 2020308
Mar 2020308
Feb 2020308
Jan 2020308
Dec 2019336
Nov 2019357
Oct 2019362
Sept 2019368
Aug 2019368
Jul 2019373
Jun 2019373
May 2019373
Apr 2019382
Mar 2019372
Feb 2019346
Jan 2019409
Dec 2018378
Nov 2018410
Oct 2018423
Sept 2018423
Aug 2018424
Jul 2018429
Jun 2018411
May 2018411
Apr 2018405
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018434
Jan 2018435
Dec 2017435
Nov 2017435
Oct 2017435
Sept 2017435
Aug 2017435
Jul 2017435
Jun 2017444
May 2017471
Apr 2017471
Mar 2017417
Feb 2017362
Jan 2017260
Dec 2016362
Nov 2016362
Oct 2016373
Sept 2016373
Aug 2016373
Jul 2016373
Jun 2016373
May 2016373
Apr 2016373
Mar 2016336
Feb 2016318
Jan 2016373
Dec 2015373
Nov 2015355
Oct 2015359
Sept 2015373
Aug 2015373
Jul 2015373
Jun 2015345
May 2015336
Apr 2015336
Mar 2015370
Feb 2015372
Jan 2015385

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-893-120-retail-kg.