Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Maize in Mopti Guangal

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 31% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

153–225

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

145–256

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 153 and 225 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 145 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Mopti Guangal: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 153 and 225 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 145 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 176–214 195 160–231 276 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 164–219 193 140–267 274 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 153–225 187 138–278 264 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 144–247 181 124–384 252 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 145–256 180 119–366 253 –
Price history (203 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026197
Jul 2026189
Jun 2026191
May 2026199
Apr 2026190
Mar 2026228
Feb 2026219
Jan 2026198
Dec 2025225
Oct 2025238
Sept 2025228
Aug 2025264
May 2025282
Apr 2025265
Mar 2025316
Feb 2025262
Jan 2025285
Dec 2024297
Nov 2024289
Oct 2024296
Sept 2024308
Aug 2024308
Jul 2024296
Jun 2024236
May 2024236
Apr 2024236
Mar 2024240
Jan 2024245
Nov 2023277
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023290
Jun 2023275
May 2023275
Apr 2023273
Mar 2023275
Dec 2022263
Nov 2022272
Oct 2022298
Sept 2022338
Aug 2022321
Jul 2022321
Jun 2022321
May 2022321
Apr 2022293
Mar 2022286
Feb 2022247
Jan 2022217
Dec 2021217
Nov 2021214
Oct 2021214
Sept 2021179
Aug 2021179
Jul 2021179
Jun 2021176
May 2021176
Apr 2021176
Mar 2021171
Feb 2021167
Jan 2021167
Dec 2020133
Nov 2020133
Oct 2020133
Sept 2020133
Aug 2020133
Jul 2020133
Jun 2020133
May 2020133
Apr 2020133
Mar 2020133
Feb 2020133
Jan 2020133
Dec 2019133
Nov 2019133
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019167
Aug 2019167
Jul 2019169
Jun 2019164
Apr 2019169
Mar 2019167
Feb 2019167
Jan 2019203
Dec 2018187
Nov 2018203
Oct 2018211
Sept 2018211
Aug 2018211
Jul 2018208
Jun 2018208
May 2018208
Apr 2018208
Mar 2018181
Feb 2018173
Jan 2018174
Dec 2017174
Nov 2017184
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017203
Aug 2017349
Jul 2017185
Jun 2017198
May 2017211
Apr 2017195
Mar 2017184
Feb 2017184
Jan 2017184
Dec 2016184
Nov 2016184
Oct 2016181
Sept 2016183
Aug 2016181
Jul 2016181
Jun 2016181
May 2016181
Apr 2016181
Mar 2016181
Feb 2016181
Jan 2016181
Dec 2015181
Nov 2015186
Oct 2015188
Aug 2015188
Jul 2015188
Jun 2015183
May 2015181
Apr 2015181
Mar 2015181
Feb 2015181
Jan 2015181
Dec 2014181
Nov 2014181
Oct 2014181
Sept 2014181
Aug 2014181
Jul 2014181
Jun 2014181
May 2014181
Apr 2014181
Mar 2014181
Feb 2014172
Jan 2014143
Dec 2013143
Nov 2013146
Oct 2013147
Sept 2013147
Aug 2013147
Jul 2013147
Jun 2013147
May 2013147
Apr 2013147
Mar 2013147
Feb 2013147
Jan 2013147
Nov 2012206
Oct 2012206
Sept 2012235
Aug 2012235
Jul 2012235
Jun 2012235
May 2012232
Apr 2012220
Mar 2012215
Feb 2012187
Jan 2012176
Oct 2011175
Sept 2011161
Aug 2011164
Jul 2011167
Jun 2011157
May 2011150
Apr 2011143
Mar 2011150
Feb 2011150
Jan 2011146
Dec 2010140
Nov 2010147
Oct 2010155
Sept 2010160
Aug 2010160
Jul 2010161
Jun 2010163
May 2010160
Apr 2010160
Mar 2010160
Feb 2010160
Jan 2010160
Dec 2009168
Nov 2009174
Oct 2009178
Sept 2009190
Aug 2009188
Jul 2009176
Jun 2009175
May 2009175
Dec 2008150
Nov 2008173
Oct 2008181
Sept 2008179
May 2008154
Aug 2007115
Jul 2007115

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-893-51-retail-kg.