Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Sorghum in Mopti Guangal

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

180–262

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

162–279

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 180 and 262 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 162 and 279 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Mopti Guangal: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 180 and 262 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 162 and 279 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 204–245 224 176–273 299 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 191–254 223 149–324 298 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 180–262 220 134–310 300 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 169–269 219 134–306 286 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 162–279 214 120–317 279 –
Price history (224 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026222
Jul 2026214
Jun 2026211
May 2026195
Apr 2026197
Mar 2026201
Feb 2026221
Jan 2026197
Dec 2025225
Oct 2025238
Sept 2025225
Aug 2025262
May 2025288
Apr 2025282
Mar 2025304
Feb 2025293
Jan 2025278
Dec 2024343
Nov 2024348
Oct 2024352
Sept 2024342
Aug 2024342
Jul 2024347
Jun 2024279
May 2024282
Apr 2024282
Mar 2024287
Jan 2024290
Nov 2023298
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023300
May 2023300
Apr 2023292
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022295
Nov 2022305
Oct 2022349
Sept 2022387
Aug 2022376
Jul 2022315
Jun 2022313
May 2022313
Apr 2022285
Mar 2022278
Feb 2022274
Jan 2022246
Dec 2021211
Nov 2021211
Oct 2021183
Sept 2021176
Aug 2021176
Jul 2021176
Jun 2021174
May 2021174
Apr 2021174
Feb 2021174
Jan 2021174
Dec 2020171
Nov 2020171
Oct 2020172
Sept 2020174
Aug 2020179
Jul 2020181
Jun 2020170
May 2020159
Apr 2020159
Mar 2020159
Feb 2020159
Jan 2020159
Dec 2019169
Nov 2019155
Oct 2019163
Sept 2019171
Aug 2019171
Jul 2019174
Jun 2019174
May 2019174
Apr 2019171
Mar 2019169
Feb 2019169
Jan 2019205
Dec 2018189
Nov 2018205
Oct 2018214
Sept 2018214
Aug 2018214
Jul 2018214
Jun 2018211
May 2018211
Apr 2018211
Mar 2018211
Feb 2018211
Jan 2018211
Dec 2017211
Nov 2017213
Oct 2017213
Sept 2017213
Aug 2017200
Jul 2017187
Jun 2017200
May 2017213
Apr 2017197
Mar 2017187
Feb 2017187
Jan 2017187
Dec 2016187
Nov 2016187
Oct 2016189
Sept 2016189
Aug 2016189
Jul 2016189
Jun 2016189
May 2016189
Apr 2016189
Mar 2016189
Feb 2016189
Jan 2016189
Dec 2015189
Nov 2015189
Oct 2015189
Aug 2015197
Jul 2015197
Jun 2015191
May 2015189
Apr 2015189
Mar 2015189
Feb 2015189
Jan 2015189
Dec 2014189
Nov 2014189
Oct 2014189
Sept 2014192
Aug 2014189
Jul 2014189
Jun 2014194
May 2014189
Apr 2014189
Mar 2014189
Feb 2014177
Jan 2014140
Dec 2013140
Nov 2013140
Oct 2013140
Sept 2013135
Aug 2013135
Jul 2013135
Jun 2013148
May 2013156
Apr 2013156
Mar 2013156
Feb 2013156
Jan 2013156
Nov 2012219
Oct 2012219
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012266
Jul 2012258
Jun 2012250
May 2012250
Apr 2012250
Mar 2012229
Feb 2012196
Jan 2012176
Oct 2011170
Sept 2011161
Aug 2011164
Jul 2011154
Jun 2011143
May 2011148
Apr 2011143
Mar 2011150
Feb 2011152
Jan 2011146
Dec 2010140
Nov 2010147
Oct 2010158
Sept 2010160
Aug 2010164
Jul 2010165
Jun 2010163
May 2010160
Apr 2010160
Mar 2010161
Feb 2010161
Jan 2010160
Dec 2009166
Nov 2009174
Oct 2009179
Sept 2009190
Aug 2009188
Jul 2009176
Jun 2009172
May 2009168
Apr 2009170
Mar 2009170
Feb 2009166
Jan 2009155
Dec 2008150
Nov 2008167
Oct 2008190
Sept 2008189
Aug 2008175
Jul 2008174
Jun 2008165
May 2008155
Apr 2008152
Mar 2008147
Feb 2008136
Jan 2008122
Dec 2007125
Nov 2007125
Oct 2007125
Sept 2007129
Aug 2007130
Jul 2007120
Jun 2007121
May 2007121
Apr 2007122
Mar 2007124
Feb 2007124
Jan 2007114

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-893-65-retail-kg.