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Rice (local) in Mopti Guangal

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

406–524

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

390–538

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 16% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 406 and 524 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 390 and 538 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Mopti Guangal: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 16% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 406 and 524 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 390 and 538 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 736); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 420–486 460 417–523 510 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 412–504 460 397–589 516 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 406–524 457 369–628 508 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 401–555 453 370–736 511 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 390–538 443 365–594 526 –
Price history (220 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026467
Jul 2026443
Jun 2026449
May 2026401
Apr 2026412
Mar 2026418
Feb 2026442
Jan 2026472
Dec 2025475
Oct 2025488
Sept 2025501
Aug 2025506
May 2025494
Apr 2025519
Mar 2025476
Feb 2025521
Jan 2025519
Dec 2024536
Nov 2024558
Oct 2024578
Sept 2024544
Aug 2024497
Jul 2024490
Jun 2024438
May 2024438
Apr 2024443
Mar 2024445
Jan 2024469
Nov 2023498
Oct 2023481
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023485
Jun 2023473
May 2023469
Apr 2023440
Mar 2023450
Dec 2022487
Oct 2022478
Sept 2022461
Aug 2022467
Jul 2022421
Jun 2022411
May 2022411
Apr 2022411
Mar 2022411
Feb 2022417
Jan 2022423
Dec 2021352
Nov 2021317
Oct 2021317
Sept 2021317
Aug 2021317
Jul 2021282
Jun 2021282
May 2021282
Apr 2021278
Mar 2021243
Feb 2021270
Dec 2020338
Nov 2020338
Oct 2020331
Sept 2020317
Aug 2020310
Jul 2020306
Jun 2020307
May 2020307
Apr 2020307
Mar 2020314
Feb 2020322
Jan 2020322
Dec 2019322
Nov 2019322
Oct 2019325
Sept 2019327
Aug 2019327
Jul 2019330
Jun 2019330
May 2019330
Apr 2019324
Mar 2019324
Feb 2019328
Jan 2019373
Dec 2018367
Nov 2018374
Oct 2018373
Sept 2018373
Aug 2018373
Jul 2018373
Jun 2018371
May 2018371
Apr 2018369
Mar 2018373
Feb 2018383
Jan 2018359
Dec 2017359
Nov 2017359
Oct 2017363
Sept 2017345
Aug 2017349
Jul 2017350
Jun 2017350
May 2017350
Apr 2017324
Mar 2017335
Feb 2017340
Jan 2017352
Dec 2016348
Nov 2016348
Oct 2016357
Sept 2016357
Aug 2016357
Jul 2016357
Jun 2016353
May 2016341
Apr 2016326
Mar 2016326
Feb 2016326
Jan 2016338
Dec 2015366
Nov 2015389
Oct 2015385
May 2015341
Apr 2015341
Mar 2015354
Feb 2015354
Jan 2015354
Dec 2014354
Nov 2014358
Oct 2014337
Sept 2014332
Aug 2014321
Jul 2014333
Jun 2014321
May 2014321
Apr 2014321
Mar 2014321
Feb 2014311
Jan 2014277
Dec 2013280
Nov 2013294
Oct 2013294
Sept 2013294
Aug 2013294
Jul 2013294
Jun 2013294
May 2013294
Apr 2013294
Mar 2013294
Feb 2013294
Jan 2013280
Nov 2012353
Oct 2012353
Sept 2012359
Aug 2012368
Jul 2012379
Jun 2012412
May 2012412
Apr 2012394
Mar 2012359
Feb 2012353
Jan 2012353
Oct 2011388
Sept 2011344
Aug 2011350
Jul 2011350
Jun 2011350
May 2011338
Apr 2011300
Mar 2011299
Feb 2011307
Jan 2011307
Dec 2010318
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010324
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010325
Jul 2010332
Jun 2010347
May 2010338
Apr 2010334
Mar 2010333
Feb 2010330
Jan 2010330
Dec 2009330
Nov 2009322
Oct 2009326
Sept 2009344
Aug 2009346
Jul 2009346
Jun 2009342
May 2009340
Apr 2009335
Mar 2009334
Feb 2009335
Jan 2009333
Dec 2008336
Nov 2008360
Oct 2008404
Sept 2008426
Aug 2008375
Jul 2008353
Jun 2008344
May 2008338
Apr 2008318
Mar 2008288
Feb 2008285
Jan 2008280
Dec 2007279
Nov 2007277
Oct 2007276
Sept 2007284
Aug 2007292
Jul 2007290
Jun 2007286
May 2007284
Apr 2007264
Mar 2007259
Feb 2007259
Jan 2007252

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-893-71-retail-kg.