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Millet in Mopti Guangal

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

208–344

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

193–363

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 208 and 344 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 193 and 363 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Mopti Guangal: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 208 and 344 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 193 and 363 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 662); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 223–288 240 217–369 337 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 212–321 240 199–463 336 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 208–344 237 204–487 341 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 202–379 236 196–662 325 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 193–363 230 176–531 304 –
Price history (225 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026239
Jul 2026247
Jun 2026240
May 2026242
Apr 2026234
Mar 2026242
Feb 2026241
Jan 2026223
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025263
Sept 2025266
Aug 2025304
May 2025315
Apr 2025368
Mar 2025342
Feb 2025362
Jan 2025338
Dec 2024373
Nov 2024369
Oct 2024387
Sept 2024382
Aug 2024387
Jul 2024397
Jun 2024299
May 2024278
Apr 2024278
Mar 2024284
Jan 2024289
Nov 2023299
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023300
May 2023319
Apr 2023323
Mar 2023325
Dec 2022344
Nov 2022375
Oct 2022429
Sept 2022435
Aug 2022440
Jul 2022371
Jun 2022375
May 2022385
Apr 2022354
Mar 2022303
Feb 2022274
Jan 2022243
Dec 2021243
Nov 2021219
Oct 2021183
Sept 2021176
Aug 2021176
Jul 2021176
Jun 2021176
May 2021176
Apr 2021176
Mar 2021176
Feb 2021176
Jan 2021176
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020208
Oct 2020208
Sept 2020211
Aug 2020211
Jul 2020192
Jun 2020192
May 2020187
Apr 2020169
Mar 2020169
Feb 2020169
Jan 2020169
Dec 2019169
Nov 2019164
Oct 2019170
Sept 2019176
Aug 2019176
Jul 2019181
Jun 2019181
May 2019181
Apr 2019211
Mar 2019208
Feb 2019174
Jan 2019243
Dec 2018215
Nov 2018243
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018246
May 2018246
Apr 2018246
Mar 2018211
Feb 2018211
Jan 2018211
Dec 2017246
Nov 2017257
Oct 2017257
Sept 2017257
Aug 2017237
Jul 2017213
Jun 2017213
May 2017213
Apr 2017197
Mar 2017187
Feb 2017187
Jan 2017187
Dec 2016187
Nov 2016187
Oct 2016189
Sept 2016189
Aug 2016189
Jul 2016189
Jun 2016189
May 2016189
Apr 2016189
Mar 2016189
Feb 2016189
Jan 2016189
Dec 2015189
Nov 2015189
Oct 2015189
Aug 2015197
Jul 2015197
Jun 2015191
May 2015189
Apr 2015189
Mar 2015189
Feb 2015189
Jan 2015196
Dec 2014210
Nov 2014210
Oct 2014210
Sept 2014210
Aug 2014210
Jul 2014210
Jun 2014194
May 2014189
Apr 2014189
Mar 2014189
Feb 2014181
Jan 2014156
Dec 2013156
Nov 2013156
Oct 2013156
Sept 2013156
Aug 2013156
Jul 2013156
Jun 2013156
May 2013156
Apr 2013156
Mar 2013156
Feb 2013156
Jan 2013156
Nov 2012250
Oct 2012250
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012266
Jul 2012258
Jun 2012250
May 2012250
Apr 2012250
Mar 2012229
Feb 2012196
Jan 2012176
Oct 2011166
Sept 2011161
Aug 2011164
Jul 2011167
Jun 2011157
May 2011154
Apr 2011143
Mar 2011150
Feb 2011152
Jan 2011150
Dec 2010150
Nov 2010157
Oct 2010167
Sept 2010179
Aug 2010182
Jul 2010176
Jun 2010175
May 2010175
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010173
Jan 2010171
Dec 2009170
Nov 2009175
Oct 2009184
Sept 2009206
Aug 2009201
Jul 2009185
Jun 2009179
May 2009174
Apr 2009170
Mar 2009170
Feb 2009170
Jan 2009159
Dec 2008150
Nov 2008174
Oct 2008189
Sept 2008191
Aug 2008185
Jul 2008175
Jun 2008166
May 2008155
Apr 2008152
Mar 2008149
Feb 2008142
Jan 2008123
Dec 2007125
Nov 2007130
Oct 2007130
Sept 2007133
Aug 2007133
Jul 2007124
Jun 2007124
May 2007122
Apr 2007124
Mar 2007124
Feb 2007124
Jan 2007115

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-893-73-retail-kg.