Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Food basket in Mopti Guangal

Mopti, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,498–4,128

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,319–4,353

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,870 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,498 and 4,128 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,319 and 4,353 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Mopti Guangal: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,870 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,498 and 4,128 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,319 and 4,353 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,946); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,679–3,462 2,881 2,609–4,432
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,546–3,855 2,877 2,392–5,559
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,498–4,128 2,847 2,447–5,846
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,418–4,547 2,834 2,346–7,946
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,319–4,353 2,762 2,113–6,368
Cost history (225 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,870
Jul 20262,962
Jun 20262,880
May 20262,899
Apr 20262,805
Mar 20262,898
Feb 20262,892
Jan 20262,681
Dec 20253,000
Oct 20253,156
Sept 20253,192
Aug 20253,648
May 20253,780
Apr 20254,416
Mar 20254,104
Feb 20254,344
Jan 20254,056
Dec 20244,476
Nov 20244,428
Oct 20244,644
Sept 20244,584
Aug 20244,644
Jul 20244,764
Jun 20243,588
May 20243,336
Apr 20243,336
Mar 20243,408
Jan 20243,468
Nov 20233,588
Oct 20233,600
Sept 20233,600
Aug 20233,600
Jul 20233,600
Jun 20233,600
May 20233,828
Apr 20233,876
Mar 20233,900
Dec 20224,128
Nov 20224,500
Oct 20225,148
Sept 20225,220
Aug 20225,280
Jul 20224,452
Jun 20224,500
May 20224,620
Apr 20224,248
Mar 20223,636
Feb 20223,288
Jan 20222,916
Dec 20212,916
Nov 20212,628
Oct 20212,196
Sept 20212,112
Aug 20212,112
Jul 20212,112
Jun 20212,112
May 20212,112
Apr 20212,112
Mar 20212,112
Feb 20212,112
Jan 20212,112
Dec 20202,400
Nov 20202,496
Oct 20202,496
Sept 20202,532
Aug 20202,532
Jul 20202,304
Jun 20202,304
May 20202,244
Apr 20202,028
Mar 20202,028
Feb 20202,028
Jan 20202,028
Dec 20192,028
Nov 20191,968
Oct 20192,040
Sept 20192,112
Aug 20192,112
Jul 20192,172
Jun 20192,172
May 20192,172
Apr 20192,532
Mar 20192,496
Feb 20192,088
Jan 20192,916
Dec 20182,580
Nov 20182,916
Oct 20183,000
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20182,952
May 20182,952
Apr 20182,952
Mar 20182,532
Feb 20182,532
Jan 20182,532
Dec 20172,952
Nov 20173,084
Oct 20173,084
Sept 20173,084
Aug 20172,844
Jul 20172,556
Jun 20172,556
May 20172,556
Apr 20172,364
Mar 20172,244
Feb 20172,244
Jan 20172,244
Dec 20162,244
Nov 20162,244
Oct 20162,268
Sept 20162,268
Aug 20162,268
Jul 20162,268
Jun 20162,268
May 20162,268
Apr 20162,268
Mar 20162,268
Feb 20162,268
Jan 20162,268
Dec 20152,268
Nov 20152,268
Oct 20152,268
Aug 20152,364
Jul 20152,364
Jun 20152,292
May 20152,268
Apr 20152,268
Mar 20152,268
Feb 20152,268
Jan 20152,352
Dec 20142,520
Nov 20142,520
Oct 20142,520
Sept 20142,520
Aug 20142,520
Jul 20142,520
Jun 20142,328
May 20142,268
Apr 20142,268
Mar 20142,268
Feb 20142,172
Jan 20141,872
Dec 20131,872
Nov 20131,872
Oct 20131,872
Sept 20131,872
Aug 20131,872
Jul 20131,872
Jun 20131,872
May 20131,872
Apr 20131,872
Mar 20131,872
Feb 20131,872
Jan 20131,872
Nov 20123,000
Oct 20123,000
Sept 20123,000
Aug 20123,192
Jul 20123,096
Jun 20123,000
May 20123,000
Apr 20123,000
Mar 20122,748
Feb 20122,349
Jan 20122,112
Oct 20111,990
Sept 20111,927
Aug 20111,971
Jul 20112,000
Jun 20111,886
May 20111,843
Apr 20111,714
Mar 20111,803
Feb 20111,821
Jan 20111,802
Dec 20101,800
Nov 20101,880
Oct 20102,004
Sept 20102,145
Aug 20102,178
Jul 20102,114
Jun 20102,104
May 20102,100
Apr 20102,100
Mar 20102,100
Feb 20102,076
Jan 20102,048
Dec 20092,038
Nov 20092,105
Oct 20092,208
Sept 20092,472
Aug 20092,408
Jul 20092,223
Jun 20092,149
May 20092,088
Apr 20092,040
Mar 20092,040
Feb 20092,040
Jan 20091,908
Dec 20081,800
Nov 20082,088
Oct 20082,268
Sept 20082,289
Aug 20082,220
Jul 20082,100
Jun 20081,987
May 20081,860
Apr 20081,824
Mar 20081,792
Feb 20081,708
Jan 20081,476
Dec 20071,500
Nov 20071,560
Oct 20071,560
Sept 20071,596
Aug 20071,595
Jul 20071,489
Jun 20071,487
May 20071,460
Apr 20071,491
Mar 20071,490
Feb 20071,490
Jan 20071,385

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189