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Rice (imported) in M'Pèssoba

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 6 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

380–461

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

370–475

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 380 and 461 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 370 and 475 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), M'Pèssoba: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 380 and 461 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 370 and 475 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 388–441 400 376–502 472 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 385–449 401 374–503 478 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 380–461 402 342–518 472 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 375–481 401 335–575 481 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 370–475 398 358–565 455 –
Price history (189 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026400
Jul 2026412
Jun 2026425
May 2026425
Oct 2025425
Sept 2025425
Aug 2025415
Jul 2025400
Jun 2025400
May 2025400
Apr 2025450
Mar 2025463
Feb 2025488
Jan 2025463
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024500
Oct 2024500
Sept 2024500
Aug 2024500
Jul 2024500
Jun 2024500
Apr 2024450
Mar 2024450
Jan 2024450
Nov 2023450
Oct 2023450
Sept 2023438
Aug 2023425
Jul 2023430
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022425
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022425
Aug 2022406
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022388
Mar 2022375
Feb 2022375
Jan 2022385
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021383
Aug 2021375
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021375
May 2021375
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021375
Feb 2021375
Jan 2021375
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020371
Jul 2020375
Jun 2020375
May 2020375
Apr 2020375
Mar 2020375
Feb 2020375
Jan 2020301
Dec 2019375
Nov 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Mar 2019350
Feb 2019350
Jan 2019350
Nov 2018350
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018375
Mar 2018375
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017375
Nov 2017357
Oct 2017370
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017380
Jun 2017350
May 2017350
Apr 2017350
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016375
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016363
May 2016360
Apr 2016350
Mar 2016350
Feb 2016350
Jan 2016375
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015381
Oct 2015375
May 2015369
Apr 2015375
Mar 2015358
Feb 2015350
Jan 2015350
Dec 2014350
Nov 2014350
Oct 2014350
Sept 2014350
Aug 2014350
Jul 2014350
Jun 2014350
May 2014350
Apr 2014350
Mar 2014350
Feb 2014350
Jan 2014350
Dec 2013350
Nov 2013350
Oct 2013350
Sept 2013350
Aug 2013350
Jul 2013350
Sept 2012375
Aug 2012375
Jul 2012375
Jun 2012375
Oct 2011375
Sept 2011375
Aug 2011375
Jul 2011350
Jun 2011350
May 2011350
Apr 2011325
Mar 2011325
Feb 2011331
Jan 2011325
Dec 2010325
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010325
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010325
May 2010325
Apr 2010325
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010325
Jan 2010325
Dec 2009325
Nov 2009325
Oct 2009325
Sept 2009325
Aug 2009325
Jul 2009325
Jun 2009325
May 2009350
Nov 2008400
Oct 2008394
Sept 2008386
Aug 2008375
Jul 2008375
Jun 2008350
May 2008325
Apr 2008325
Mar 2008300
Feb 2008275
Jan 2008275
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007275
Oct 2007275
Sept 2007275
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-894-64-retail-kg.