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Maize in Niamakoro

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

177–277

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

165–356

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 177 and 277 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 165 and 356 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Niamakoro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 177 and 277 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 165 and 356 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 759); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 191–244 211 173–277 313 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 182–264 209 161–381 309 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 177–277 204 167–443 296 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 165–321 198 149–750 272 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 165–356 201 148–759 277 –
Price history (227 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026212
Jun 2026213
May 2026225
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025200
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025260
Aug 2025263
Jul 2025290
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025288
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025288
Dec 2024290
Nov 2024300
Oct 2024340
Sept 2024313
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024300
Jun 2024275
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024238
Nov 2023288
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023263
Jun 2023275
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023250
Dec 2022275
Nov 2022295
Oct 2022300
Sept 2022313
Aug 2022325
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022350
May 2022325
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022280
Feb 2022263
Jan 2022275
Dec 2021275
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021225
Jun 2021210
May 2021225
Apr 2021212
Mar 2021205
Feb 2021194
Jan 2021188
Dec 2020165
Nov 2020169
Oct 2020175
Sept 2020185
Aug 2020156
Jul 2020169
Jun 2020190
May 2020200
Apr 2020175
Mar 2020175
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019175
Nov 2019150
Oct 2019175
Sept 2019175
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019190
Jun 2019175
May 2019156
Apr 2019150
Mar 2019162
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019193
Dec 2018156
Nov 2018194
Oct 2018210
Sept 2018225
Aug 2018237
Jul 2018215
Jun 2018218
May 2018200
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018185
Dec 2017187
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017206
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017190
Apr 2017188
Mar 2017194
Feb 2017188
Jan 2017170
Dec 2016156
Nov 2016180
Oct 2016194
Sept 2016194
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016190
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015165
Nov 2015175
Oct 2015213
Aug 2015181
Jul 2015188
Jun 2015185
May 2015169
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015192
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015167
Dec 2014169
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014167
Sept 2014169
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014170
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014181
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013181
Oct 2013175
Sept 2013183
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013180
Jun 2013175
May 2013175
Apr 2013175
Mar 2013175
Feb 2013194
Jan 2013195
Nov 2012200
Oct 2012215
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012250
May 2012250
Apr 2012250
Mar 2012231
Feb 2012225
Jan 2012230
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011225
Sept 2011212
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011188
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011171
Jan 2011156
Dec 2010162
Nov 2010150
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010175
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010185
May 2010175
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010175
Dec 2009165
Nov 2009175
Oct 2009180
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009198
Jun 2009189
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008155
Nov 2008150
Oct 2008185
Sept 2008190
Aug 2008189
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008175
May 2008175
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007148
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007144
Jul 2007125
Jun 2007125
May 2007130
Apr 2007125
Mar 2007125
Feb 2007141
Jan 2007125

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-896-51-retail-kg.