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Sorghum in Niamakoro

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

228–319

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

215–340

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 228 and 319 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 215 and 340 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Niamakoro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 228 and 319 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 215 and 340 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 257–299 275 224–343 352 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 243–308 274 208–373 355 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 228–319 266 176–390 346 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 212–320 259 161–354 321 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 215–340 257 177–403 315 –
Price history (227 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026275
Jul 2026275
Jun 2026263
May 2026275
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026262
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025288
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025320
Mar 2025325
Feb 2025325
Jan 2025325
Dec 2024340
Nov 2024350
Oct 2024380
Sept 2024375
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024370
Jun 2024300
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023340
Sept 2023313
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023313
Jun 2023288
May 2023310
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022363
Nov 2022390
Oct 2022438
Sept 2022425
Aug 2022425
Jul 2022388
Jun 2022388
May 2022380
Apr 2022350
Mar 2022310
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022263
Dec 2021263
Nov 2021245
Oct 2021238
Sept 2021213
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021205
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020190
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020194
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019200
Oct 2019200
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019206
Jan 2019237
Dec 2018200
Nov 2018238
Oct 2018230
Sept 2018262
Aug 2018268
Jul 2018265
Jun 2018250
May 2018265
Apr 2018256
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018225
Jan 2018215
Dec 2017218
Nov 2017225
Oct 2017245
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017235
Jul 2017225
Jun 2017206
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017180
Dec 2016181
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016181
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015194
Oct 2015206
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015200
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015183
Feb 2015181
Jan 2015192
Dec 2014188
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014192
Sept 2014194
Aug 2014188
Jul 2014188
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014200
Dec 2013200
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Jun 2013200
May 2013200
Apr 2013200
Mar 2013200
Feb 2013194
Jan 2013200
Nov 2012238
Oct 2012290
Sept 2012300
Aug 2012300
Jul 2012300
Jun 2012300
May 2012280
Apr 2012275
Mar 2012262
Feb 2012250
Jan 2012250
Nov 2011225
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011188
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011171
Jan 2011156
Dec 2010162
Nov 2010150
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010175
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010185
May 2010175
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010180
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010175
Dec 2009160
Nov 2009194
Oct 2009200
Sept 2009220
Aug 2009206
Jul 2009198
Jun 2009187
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009169
Dec 2008148
Nov 2008150
Oct 2008181
Sept 2008185
Aug 2008181
Jul 2008190
Jun 2008162
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007148
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007145
Jun 2007138
May 2007140
Apr 2007131
Mar 2007148
Feb 2007148
Jan 2007130

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-896-65-retail-kg.