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Millet in Niamakoro

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

224–360

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

204–449

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 23% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 224 and 360 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 204 and 449 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Niamakoro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 23% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 224 and 360 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 204 and 449 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 882); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 239–321 256 230–416 389 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 231–348 258 227–432 396 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 224–360 257 196–433 390 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 214–406 252 192–713 369 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 204–449 253 162–882 350 –
Price history (228 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026250
Jul 2026288
Jun 2026288
May 2026325
Apr 2026300
Mar 2026300
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026288
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025350
Sept 2025320
Aug 2025338
Jul 2025350
Jun 2025350
May 2025350
Apr 2025380
Mar 2025363
Feb 2025388
Jan 2025363
Dec 2024370
Nov 2024388
Oct 2024450
Sept 2024375
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024400
Jun 2024325
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023325
Oct 2023360
Sept 2023350
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023350
Jun 2023338
May 2023350
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022430
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022425
Jul 2022425
Jun 2022419
May 2022435
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022330
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021255
Oct 2021244
Sept 2021238
Aug 2021220
Jul 2021206
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021206
Mar 2021205
Feb 2021219
Jan 2021213
Dec 2020215
Nov 2020250
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020240
Aug 2020206
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019200
Oct 2019200
Sept 2019206
Aug 2019206
Jul 2019205
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019212
Jan 2019237
Dec 2018200
Nov 2018238
Oct 2018230
Sept 2018268
Aug 2018268
Jul 2018265
Jun 2018275
May 2018285
Apr 2018281
Mar 2018275
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017275
Nov 2017268
Oct 2017280
Sept 2017281
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017244
May 2017230
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017219
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016210
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016206
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016205
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015200
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015213
Aug 2015225
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015225
May 2015225
Apr 2015225
Mar 2015208
Feb 2015206
Jan 2015217
Dec 2014219
Nov 2014225
Oct 2014217
Sept 2014219
Aug 2014225
Jul 2014233
Jun 2014225
May 2014225
Apr 2014225
Mar 2014225
Feb 2014225
Jan 2014225
Dec 2013244
Nov 2013250
Oct 2013250
Sept 2013250
Aug 2013250
Jul 2013250
Jun 2013250
May 2013250
Apr 2013250
Mar 2013250
Feb 2013250
Jan 2013240
Nov 2012300
Oct 2012320
Sept 2012325
Aug 2012325
Jul 2012300
Jun 2012300
May 2012300
Apr 2012296
Mar 2012262
Feb 2012256
Jan 2012255
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011181
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011171
Jan 2011169
Dec 2010169
Nov 2010175
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010198
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010195
May 2010181
Apr 2010188
Mar 2010190
Feb 2010195
Jan 2010194
Dec 2009190
Nov 2009225
Oct 2009205
Sept 2009225
Aug 2009206
Jul 2009198
Jun 2009189
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008176
Nov 2008175
Oct 2008188
Sept 2008190
Aug 2008185
Jul 2008193
Jun 2008175
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007148
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007138
May 2007150
Apr 2007150
Mar 2007150
Feb 2007150
Jan 2007150

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-896-73-retail-kg.