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Food basket in Niamakoro

Bamako, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,685–4,315

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,450–5,387

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,000 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,685 and 4,315 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,450 and 5,387 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Niamakoro: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,000 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,685 and 4,315 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,450 and 5,387 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 10,590); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,862–3,856 3,077 2,757–4,989
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,777–4,180 3,092 2,727–5,188
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,685–4,315 3,083 2,357–5,196
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,571–4,876 3,026 2,302–8,558
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,450–5,387 3,033 1,944–10,590
Cost history (228 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,000
Jul 20263,450
Jun 20263,456
May 20263,900
Apr 20263,600
Mar 20263,600
Feb 20263,600
Jan 20263,450
Dec 20253,600
Oct 20254,200
Sept 20253,840
Aug 20254,056
Jul 20254,200
Jun 20254,200
May 20254,200
Apr 20254,560
Mar 20254,356
Feb 20254,650
Jan 20254,356
Dec 20244,440
Nov 20244,656
Oct 20245,400
Sept 20244,500
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,800
Jun 20243,900
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,600
Jan 20243,600
Nov 20233,900
Oct 20234,320
Sept 20234,200
Aug 20234,200
Jul 20234,200
Jun 20234,056
May 20234,200
Apr 20234,200
Mar 20233,600
Dec 20224,800
Nov 20225,160
Oct 20225,400
Sept 20225,400
Aug 20225,100
Jul 20225,100
Jun 20225,028
May 20225,220
Apr 20224,800
Mar 20223,960
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,600
Nov 20213,060
Oct 20212,928
Sept 20212,856
Aug 20212,640
Jul 20212,472
Jun 20212,400
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,475
Mar 20212,460
Feb 20212,628
Jan 20212,556
Dec 20202,580
Nov 20203,000
Oct 20203,000
Sept 20202,880
Aug 20202,472
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,400
May 20202,400
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,400
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20202,100
Dec 20192,400
Nov 20192,400
Oct 20192,400
Sept 20192,472
Aug 20192,472
Jul 20192,460
Jun 20192,400
May 20192,400
Apr 20192,400
Mar 20192,400
Feb 20192,544
Jan 20192,844
Dec 20182,400
Nov 20182,850
Oct 20182,760
Sept 20183,216
Aug 20183,216
Jul 20183,180
Jun 20183,300
May 20183,420
Apr 20183,372
Mar 20183,300
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20183,000
Dec 20173,300
Nov 20173,216
Oct 20173,360
Sept 20173,372
Aug 20173,000
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20172,928
May 20172,760
Apr 20172,700
Mar 20172,628
Feb 20172,400
Jan 20172,400
Dec 20162,400
Nov 20162,520
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20162,400
Aug 20162,472
Jul 20162,400
Jun 20162,400
May 20162,460
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,400
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20162,400
Dec 20152,400
Nov 20152,400
Oct 20152,556
Aug 20152,700
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,700
May 20152,700
Apr 20152,700
Mar 20152,496
Feb 20152,472
Jan 20152,604
Dec 20142,628
Nov 20142,700
Oct 20142,604
Sept 20142,628
Aug 20142,700
Jul 20142,796
Jun 20142,700
May 20142,700
Apr 20142,700
Mar 20142,700
Feb 20142,700
Jan 20142,700
Dec 20132,928
Nov 20133,000
Oct 20133,000
Sept 20133,000
Aug 20133,000
Jul 20133,000
Jun 20133,000
May 20133,000
Apr 20133,000
Mar 20133,000
Feb 20133,000
Jan 20132,880
Nov 20123,600
Oct 20123,840
Sept 20123,900
Aug 20123,900
Jul 20123,600
Jun 20123,600
May 20123,600
Apr 20123,555
Mar 20123,150
Feb 20123,075
Jan 20123,060
Nov 20112,400
Oct 20112,400
Sept 20112,175
Aug 20112,100
Jul 20112,100
Jun 20112,100
May 20112,100
Apr 20112,100
Mar 20112,100
Feb 20112,055
Jan 20112,025
Dec 20102,025
Nov 20102,100
Oct 20102,100
Sept 20102,370
Aug 20102,400
Jul 20102,400
Jun 20102,340
May 20102,175
Apr 20102,250
Mar 20102,280
Feb 20102,340
Jan 20102,325
Dec 20092,280
Nov 20092,700
Oct 20092,460
Sept 20092,700
Aug 20092,475
Jul 20092,370
Jun 20092,268
May 20092,100
Apr 20092,100
Mar 20092,100
Feb 20092,100
Jan 20092,100
Dec 20082,112
Nov 20082,100
Oct 20082,250
Sept 20082,280
Aug 20082,220
Jul 20082,316
Jun 20082,100
May 20081,800
Apr 20081,800
Mar 20081,800
Feb 20081,800
Jan 20081,800
Dec 20071,800
Nov 20071,770
Oct 20071,800
Sept 20071,800
Aug 20071,800
Jul 20071,800
Jun 20071,650
May 20071,800
Apr 20071,800
Mar 20071,800
Feb 20071,800
Jan 20071,800

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189