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Maize in Niono

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

196–302

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

183–352

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 196 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 183 and 352 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Niono: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 196 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 183 and 352 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 583); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 229–275 248 219–309 365 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 212–284 245 199–360 340 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 196–302 237 173–402 323 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 186–331 232 154–563 308 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 183–352 232 141–583 311 –
Price history (209 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025258
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025258
Aug 2025288
May 2025300
Apr 2025280
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024250
Oct 2024350
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024335
Jun 2024300
May 2024280
Apr 2024280
Mar 2024280
Jan 2024280
Nov 2023295
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023296
Jun 2023274
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022332
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022346
Jun 2022336
May 2022340
Apr 2022333
Mar 2022295
Feb 2022268
Jan 2022245
Dec 2021238
Nov 2021209
Oct 2021214
Sept 2021230
Aug 2021219
Jul 2021204
Jun 2021195
May 2021195
Apr 2021195
Mar 2021195
Feb 2021181
Jan 2021170
Dec 2020155
Nov 2020152
Oct 2020160
Sept 2020158
Aug 2020153
Jul 2020135
Jun 2020125
May 2020125
Apr 2020125
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020119
Jan 2020115
Dec 2019113
Nov 2019115
Oct 2019122
Sept 2019133
Aug 2019135
Jul 2019135
Jun 2019140
May 2019140
Apr 2019140
Mar 2019140
Feb 2019140
Jan 2019133
Dec 2018140
Nov 2018134
Oct 2018142
Sept 2018202
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018198
Jun 2018190
May 2018190
Apr 2018183
Mar 2018170
Feb 2018160
Jan 2018152
Dec 2017150
Nov 2017150
Oct 2017158
Sept 2017170
Aug 2017362Data error
Jun 2017150
May 2017150
Apr 2017142
Mar 2017140
Feb 2017135
Jan 2017134
Dec 2016135
Nov 2016138
Oct 2016145
Sept 2016153
Aug 2016160
Jul 2016160
Jun 2016153
May 2016146
Apr 2016140
Mar 2016140
Feb 2016135
Jan 2016134
Dec 2015130
Nov 2015134
Oct 2015168
Aug 2015164
Jul 2015153
Jun 2015145
May 2015140
Apr 2015125
Mar 2015125
Feb 2015125
Jan 2015125
Dec 2014130
Nov 2014131
Oct 2014147
Sept 2014147
Aug 2014140
Jul 2014145
Jun 2014150
May 2014150
Apr 2014160
Mar 2014138
Feb 2014139
Jan 2014140
Dec 2013146
Nov 2013140
Oct 2013148
Sept 2013155
Aug 2013150
Jul 2013150
Sept 2012225
Aug 2012225
Jul 2012225
Jun 2012233
Oct 2011175
Sept 2011192
Aug 2011159
Jul 2011153
Jun 2011143
May 2011140
Apr 2011126
Mar 2011130
Feb 2011129
Jan 2011127
Dec 2010122
Nov 2010103
Oct 2010118
Sept 2010130
Aug 2010145
Jul 2010142
Jun 2010138
May 2010136
Apr 2010131
Mar 2010138
Feb 2010141
Jan 2010144
Dec 2009132
Nov 2009134
Oct 2009134
Sept 2009167
Aug 2009175
Jul 2009165
Jun 2009162
May 2009156
Apr 2009150
Mar 2009151
Feb 2009152
Jan 2009141
Dec 2008121
Nov 2008118
Oct 2008136
Sept 2008176
Aug 2008164
Jul 2008172
Jun 2008151
May 2008132
Apr 2008126
Mar 2008120
Feb 2008121
Jan 2008119
Dec 2007110
Nov 2007105
Oct 2007102
Sept 2007108
Aug 2007110
Jul 2007106
Jun 200794.4
May 200791.7
Apr 200790
Mar 200796.2
Feb 200798.8
Jan 200787.2

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-897-51-retail-kg.