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Rice (local) in Niono

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

310–417

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

292–435

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 310 and 417 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 292 and 435 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Niono: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 310 and 417 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 292 and 435 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 335–412 354 328–473 478 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 320–414 353 318–482 452 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 310–417 351 294–521 436 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 310–441 352 292–585 444 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 292–435 346 250–532 424 –
Price history (208 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026352
Jul 2026350
Jun 2026350
May 2026352
Apr 2026363
Mar 2026362
Feb 2026362
Jan 2026368
Dec 2025407
Oct 2025388
Sept 2025400
Aug 2025425
May 2025450
Apr 2025455
Mar 2025450
Feb 2025463
Jan 2025463
Dec 2024463
Oct 2024470
Sept 2024533
Aug 2024518
Jul 2024483
Jun 2024459
May 2024460
Apr 2024463
Mar 2024431
Jan 2024388
Nov 2023384
Oct 2023413
Sept 2023453
Aug 2023465
Jul 2023448
Jun 2023425
May 2023461
Apr 2023473
Mar 2023500
Dec 2022463
Nov 2022448
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022488
Aug 2022479
Jul 2022421
Jun 2022388
May 2022388
Apr 2022388
Mar 2022388
Feb 2022388
Jan 2022383
Dec 2021379
Nov 2021370
Oct 2021384
Sept 2021388
Aug 2021365
Jul 2021351
Jun 2021365
May 2021373
Apr 2021368
Mar 2021360
Feb 2021353
Jan 2021305
Dec 2020350
Nov 2020344
Oct 2020345
Sept 2020350
Aug 2020343
Jul 2020315
Jun 2020315
May 2020323
Apr 2020325
Mar 2020325
Feb 2020321
Jan 2020310
Dec 2019310
Nov 2019310
Oct 2019315
Sept 2019315
Aug 2019315
Jul 2019315
Jun 2019315
May 2019322
Apr 2019325
Mar 2019316
Feb 2019310
Jan 2019321
Dec 2018314
Nov 2018321
Oct 2018348
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018370
Mar 2018333
Feb 2018325
Jan 2018325
Dec 2017325
Nov 2017325
Oct 2017335
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017362
Jul 2017335
Jun 2017325
May 2017325
Apr 2017325
Mar 2017318
Feb 2017300
Jan 2017300
Dec 2016300
Nov 2016300
Oct 2016319
Sept 2016325
Aug 2016325
Jul 2016325
Jun 2016325
May 2016325
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016325
Feb 2016300
Jan 2016300
Dec 2015300
Nov 2015300
Oct 2015345
May 2015350
Apr 2015325
Mar 2015308
Feb 2015293
Jan 2015290
Dec 2014290
Nov 2014293
Oct 2014325
Sept 2014318
Aug 2014305
Jul 2014275
Jun 2014298
May 2014300
Apr 2014290
Mar 2014275
Feb 2014266
Jan 2014275
Dec 2013275
Nov 2013275
Oct 2013275
Sept 2013292
Aug 2013280
Jul 2013272
Sept 2012300
Aug 2012300
Jul 2012300
Jun 2012356
Oct 2011332
Sept 2011351
Aug 2011369
Jul 2011322
Jun 2011312
May 2011317
Apr 2011300
Mar 2011275
Feb 2011272
Jan 2011267
Dec 2010275
Nov 2010275
Oct 2010280
Sept 2010283
Aug 2010292
Jul 2010275
Jun 2010275
May 2010293
Apr 2010285
Mar 2010275
Feb 2010275
Jan 2010278
Dec 2009281
Nov 2009250
Oct 2009276
Sept 2009317
Aug 2009342
Jul 2009316
Jun 2009315
May 2009323
Apr 2009316
Mar 2009315
Feb 2009307
Jan 2009304
Dec 2008307
Nov 2008301
Oct 2008318
Sept 2008374
Aug 2008346
Jul 2008345
Jun 2008325
May 2008323
Apr 2008310
Mar 2008289
Feb 2008260
Jan 2008246
Dec 2007231
Nov 2007238
Oct 2007238
Sept 2007264
Aug 2007265
Jul 2007247
Jun 2007249
May 2007256
Apr 2007250
Mar 2007235
Feb 2007224
Jan 2007225

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-897-71-retail-kg.