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Millet in Niono

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 36% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

194–332

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

180–330

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 194 and 332 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 180 and 330 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Niono: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 194 and 332 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 180 and 330 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 519); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 212–285 228 208–329 369 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 200–306 226 190–408 361 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 194–332 224 190–519 348 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 184–337 221 173–515 333 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 180–330 217 157–424 322 –
Price history (210 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026258
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025283
Oct 2025278
Sept 2025290
Aug 2025320
May 2025350
Apr 2025330
Mar 2025350
Feb 2025348
Jan 2025340
Dec 2024350
Oct 2024400
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024418
Jun 2024337
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023296
Jun 2023276
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022320
Nov 2022335
Oct 2022420
Sept 2022438
Aug 2022395
Jul 2022388
Jun 2022383
May 2022390
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022310
Feb 2022281
Jan 2022248
Dec 2021251
Nov 2021234
Oct 2021201
Sept 2021190
Aug 2021189
Jul 2021179
Jun 2021175
May 2021172
Apr 2021169
Mar 2021168
Feb 2021163
Jan 2021151
Dec 2020160
Nov 2020182
Oct 2020185
Sept 2020185
Aug 2020189
Jul 2020166
Jun 2020156
May 2020150
Apr 2020139
Mar 2020135
Feb 2020131
Jan 2020132
Dec 2019135
Nov 2019130
Oct 2019135
Sept 2019139
Aug 2019140
Jul 2019140
Jun 2019150
May 2019150
Apr 2019150
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019175
Dec 2018162
Nov 2018175
Oct 2018192
Sept 2018224
Aug 2018230
Jul 2018230
Jun 2018230
May 2018227
Apr 2018217
Mar 2018210
Feb 2018210
Jan 2018202
Dec 2017196
Nov 2017215
Oct 2017225
Sept 2017230
Aug 2017221
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Apr 2017176
Mar 2017165
Feb 2017153
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016153
Nov 2016170
Oct 2016160
Sept 2016160
Aug 2016160
Jul 2016160
Jun 2016160
May 2016148
Apr 2016140
Mar 2016140
Feb 2016140
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015155
Nov 2015164
Oct 2015174
Aug 2015180
Jul 2015180
Jun 2015180
May 2015173
Apr 2015165
Mar 2015165
Feb 2015161
Jan 2015160
Dec 2014175
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014182
Sept 2014185
Aug 2014184
Jul 2014183
Jun 2014184
May 2014177
Apr 2014166
Mar 2014170
Feb 2014169
Jan 2014169
Dec 2013174
Nov 2013178
Oct 2013174
Sept 2013182
Aug 2013180
Jul 2013179
Sept 2012270
Aug 2012281
Jul 2012274
Jun 2012273
Oct 2011167
Sept 2011130
Aug 2011137
Jul 2011133
Jun 2011134
May 2011120
Apr 2011119
Mar 2011121
Feb 2011128
Jan 2011124
Dec 2010121
Nov 2010106
Oct 2010111
Sept 2010122
Aug 2010149
Jul 2010151
Jun 2010141
May 2010132
Apr 2010136
Mar 2010132
Feb 2010140
Jan 2010140
Dec 2009138
Nov 2009135
Oct 2009173
Sept 2009189
Aug 2009189
Jul 2009175
Jun 2009168
May 2009157
Apr 2009150
Mar 2009150
Feb 2009154
Jan 2009144
Dec 2008135
Nov 2008132
Oct 2008166
Sept 2008173
Aug 2008170
Jul 2008175
Jun 2008155
May 2008135
Apr 2008126
Mar 2008128
Feb 2008127
Jan 2008118
Dec 2007114
Nov 2007113
Oct 2007104
Sept 200797.5
Aug 2007112
Jul 2007112
Jun 2007103
May 200796.5
Apr 200799.1
Mar 2007101
Feb 2007102
Jan 200793

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-897-73-retail-kg.