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Food basket in Niono

Segou, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,329–3,987

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,162–3,956

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,700 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,329 and 3,987 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,162 and 3,956 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Niono: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,700 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,329 and 3,987 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,162 and 3,956 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 6,233); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,540–3,422 2,731 2,490–3,949
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,401–3,670 2,711 2,274–4,894
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,329–3,987 2,692 2,283–6,233
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,212–4,042 2,656 2,077–6,178
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,162–3,956 2,604 1,878–5,087
Cost history (210 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,700
Jul 20263,090
Jun 20263,000
May 20263,000
Apr 20263,000
Mar 20263,000
Feb 20263,000
Jan 20263,000
Dec 20253,400
Oct 20253,336
Sept 20253,480
Aug 20253,840
May 20254,200
Apr 20253,960
Mar 20254,200
Feb 20254,176
Jan 20254,080
Dec 20244,200
Oct 20244,800
Sept 20244,800
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20245,016
Jun 20244,044
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,600
Jan 20243,600
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20233,600
Sept 20233,600
Aug 20233,600
Jul 20233,552
Jun 20233,312
May 20233,600
Apr 20233,600
Mar 20233,600
Dec 20223,840
Nov 20224,020
Oct 20225,040
Sept 20225,256
Aug 20224,740
Jul 20224,656
Jun 20224,596
May 20224,680
Apr 20224,500
Mar 20223,720
Feb 20223,372
Jan 20222,976
Dec 20213,012
Nov 20212,808
Oct 20212,412
Sept 20212,280
Aug 20212,268
Jul 20212,148
Jun 20212,100
May 20212,064
Apr 20212,025
Mar 20212,016
Feb 20211,956
Jan 20211,812
Dec 20201,920
Nov 20202,184
Oct 20202,220
Sept 20202,220
Aug 20202,268
Jul 20201,992
Jun 20201,872
May 20201,800
Apr 20201,668
Mar 20201,620
Feb 20201,572
Jan 20201,584
Dec 20191,620
Nov 20191,560
Oct 20191,620
Sept 20191,668
Aug 20191,680
Jul 20191,680
Jun 20191,800
May 20191,800
Apr 20191,800
Mar 20191,800
Feb 20191,800
Jan 20192,100
Dec 20181,944
Nov 20182,100
Oct 20182,304
Sept 20182,688
Aug 20182,760
Jul 20182,760
Jun 20182,760
May 20182,724
Apr 20182,604
Mar 20182,520
Feb 20182,520
Jan 20182,424
Dec 20172,352
Nov 20172,580
Oct 20172,700
Sept 20172,760
Aug 20172,652
Jun 20172,400
May 20172,400
Apr 20172,112
Mar 20171,980
Feb 20171,836
Jan 20171,800
Dec 20161,836
Nov 20162,040
Oct 20161,920
Sept 20161,920
Aug 20161,920
Jul 20161,920
Jun 20161,920
May 20161,776
Apr 20161,680
Mar 20161,680
Feb 20161,680
Jan 20161,800
Dec 20151,860
Nov 20151,968
Oct 20152,088
Aug 20152,160
Jul 20152,160
Jun 20152,160
May 20152,076
Apr 20151,980
Mar 20151,980
Feb 20151,932
Jan 20151,920
Dec 20142,100
Nov 20142,100
Oct 20142,184
Sept 20142,220
Aug 20142,208
Jul 20142,196
Jun 20142,208
May 20142,120
Apr 20141,992
Mar 20142,040
Feb 20142,028
Jan 20142,028
Dec 20132,088
Nov 20132,136
Oct 20132,088
Sept 20132,190
Aug 20132,160
Jul 20132,145
Sept 20123,240
Aug 20123,372
Jul 20123,288
Jun 20123,276
Oct 20112,000
Sept 20111,560
Aug 20111,641
Jul 20111,596
Jun 20111,605
May 20111,440
Apr 20111,431
Mar 20111,455
Feb 20111,530
Jan 20111,483
Dec 20101,455
Nov 20101,275
Oct 20101,332
Sept 20101,470
Aug 20101,793
Jul 20101,812
Jun 20101,695
May 20101,590
Apr 20101,635
Mar 20101,581
Feb 20101,674
Jan 20101,686
Dec 20091,650
Nov 20091,615
Oct 20092,071
Sept 20092,272
Aug 20092,268
Jul 20092,103
Jun 20092,022
May 20091,884
Apr 20091,794
Mar 20091,800
Feb 20091,842
Jan 20091,724
Dec 20081,620
Nov 20081,584
Oct 20081,992
Sept 20082,073
Aug 20082,040
Jul 20082,100
Jun 20081,860
May 20081,622
Apr 20081,512
Mar 20081,538
Feb 20081,521
Jan 20081,411
Dec 20071,368
Nov 20071,361
Oct 20071,248
Sept 20071,170
Aug 20071,350
Jul 20071,350
Jun 20071,240
May 20071,158
Apr 20071,189
Mar 20071,212
Feb 20071,224
Jan 20071,115

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189