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Maize in Nioro

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

238–341

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

206–386

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 238 and 341 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 206 and 386 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Nioro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 238 and 341 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 206 and 386 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 566); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 259–316 292 242–344 351 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 247–326 289 244–378 345 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 238–341 281 220–427 351 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 214–347 266 167–460 325 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 206–386 265 147–566 327 –
Price history (210 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026280
Jun 2026267
May 2026265
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025275
Aug 2025300
Jul 2025262
Jun 2025300
May 2025304
Apr 2025320
Mar 2025296
Feb 2025290
Jan 2025296
Dec 2024320
Nov 2024352
Oct 2024370
Sept 2024360
Aug 2024360
Jul 2024320
Jun 2024320
May 2024320
Apr 2024320
Mar 2024320
Jan 2024320
Nov 2023320
Oct 2023310
Sept 2023316
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023316
May 2023320
Apr 2023320
Dec 2022290
Nov 2022315
Oct 2022390
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022413
Apr 2022368
Mar 2022320
Feb 2022320
Jan 2022320
Dec 2021320
Nov 2021310
Oct 2021280
Sept 2021280
Aug 2021280
Jul 2021264
Jun 2021240
May 2021240
Apr 2021232
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019200
Oct 2019200
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019240
Dec 2018200
Nov 2018240
Oct 2018240
Sept 2018240
Aug 2018240
Jul 2018240
Jun 2018216
May 2018200
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018200
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017200
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016210
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015200
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015200
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015200
Dec 2014200
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014200
Dec 2013200
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Sept 2012260
Aug 2012240
Jul 2012270
Jun 2012280
Oct 2011233
Sept 2011200
Aug 2011200
Jul 2011200
Jun 2011200
May 2011160
Apr 2011160
Mar 2011160
Feb 2011160
Jan 2011160
Dec 2010140
Nov 2010160
Oct 2010180
Sept 2010180
Aug 2010180
Jul 2010180
Jun 2010160
May 2010160
Apr 2010160
Mar 2010160
Feb 2010160
Jan 2010160
Dec 2009170
Nov 2009200
Oct 2009200
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009200
May 2009200
Apr 2009200
Mar 2009200
Feb 2009200
Jan 2009180
Dec 2008160
Nov 2008180
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008200
Jun 2008173
May 2008160
Apr 2008160
Mar 2008160
Feb 2008160
Jan 2008160
Dec 2007160
Nov 2007160
Sept 2007145
Aug 2007140
Jul 2007160
Jun 2007152
May 2007160
Apr 2007160
Mar 2007160
Feb 2007140
Jan 2007160

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-898-51-retail-kg.