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Sorghum in Nioro

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 10% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

223–343

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

195–388

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 223 and 343 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 195 and 388 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Nioro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 223 and 343 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 195 and 388 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 511); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 258–321 293 249–338 345 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 239–333 291 225–369 327 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 223–343 280 182–386 331 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 200–376 273 137–511 319 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 195–388 260 147–507 301 –
Price history (213 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026280
Jun 2026275
May 2026275
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026210
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025275
Aug 2025300
Jul 2025262
Jun 2025300
May 2025304
Apr 2025320
Mar 2025296
Feb 2025290
Jan 2025296
Dec 2024320
Nov 2024384
Oct 2024400
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024380
Jun 2024320
May 2024320
Apr 2024320
Mar 2024320
Jan 2024320
Nov 2023320
Oct 2023310
Sept 2023308
Aug 2023280
Jul 2023280
Jun 2023280
May 2023280
Apr 2023280
Dec 2022280
Nov 2022350
Oct 2022430
Sept 2022440
Aug 2022440
Jul 2022440
Jun 2022440
May 2022433
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022370
Feb 2022340
Jan 2022305
Dec 2021312
Nov 2021295
Oct 2021256
Sept 2021240
Aug 2021240
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020210
Mar 2020220
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019320
Nov 2019200
Oct 2019200
Sept 2019210
Aug 2019240
Jul 2019240
Jun 2019240
May 2019240
Apr 2019240
Mar 2019240
Feb 2019240
Jan 2019270
Dec 2018240
Nov 2018270
Oct 2018286
Sept 2018300
Aug 2018290
Jul 2018280
Jun 2018268
May 2018260
Apr 2018260
Mar 2018260
Feb 2018260
Jan 2018260
Dec 2017260
Nov 2017260
Oct 2017260
Sept 2017260
Aug 2017245
Jul 2017240
Jun 2017240
May 2017240
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016300
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015240
Nov 2015240
Oct 2015240
Aug 2015240
Jul 2015240
Jun 2015240
May 2015200
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015213
Dec 2014240
Nov 2014240
Oct 2014240
Sept 2014240
Aug 2014240
Jul 2014240
Jun 2014240
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014200
Dec 2013200
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Sept 2012300
Aug 2012300
Jul 2012300
Jun 2012300
Oct 2011245
Sept 2011204
Aug 2011200
Jul 2011184
Jun 2011180
May 2011180
Apr 2011180
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011165
Jan 2011180
Dec 2010188
Nov 2010200
Oct 2010200
Sept 2010200
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010196
Jun 2010180
May 2010180
Apr 2010180
Mar 2010180
Feb 2010180
Jan 2010180
Dec 2009180
Nov 2009200
Oct 2009200
Sept 2009220
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009200
May 2009184
Apr 2009180
Mar 2009180
Feb 2009180
Jan 2009176
Dec 2008160
Nov 2008160
Oct 2008200
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008200
Jul 2008190
Jun 2008165
May 2008160
Apr 2008160
Mar 2008160
Feb 2008160
Jan 2008160
Dec 2007160
Nov 2007160
Oct 2007160
Sept 2007160
Aug 2007160
Jul 2007160
Jun 2007160
May 2007160
Apr 2007160
Mar 2007160
Feb 2007160
Jan 2007160

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-898-65-retail-kg.