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Millet in Nioro

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 49% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

211–425

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

213–424

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 49% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 34% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 211 and 425 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 213 and 424 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Nioro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 49% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 34% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 211 and 425 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 213 and 424 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 224–376 255 208–470 489 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 216–408 255 201–483 475 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 211–425 254 175–481 497 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 206–431 251 170–623 484 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 213–424 251 197–599 469 –
Price history (213 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026231
Jul 2026350
Jun 2026350
May 2026350
Apr 2026350
Mar 2026350
Feb 2026350
Jan 2026350
Dec 2025350
Oct 2025350
Sept 2025350
Aug 2025350
Jul 2025350
Jun 2025450
May 2025456
Apr 2025480
Mar 2025528
Feb 2025480
Jan 2025528
Dec 2024520
Nov 2024520
Oct 2024520
Sept 2024520
Aug 2024580
Jul 2024510
Jun 2024480
May 2024480
Apr 2024480
Mar 2024480
Jan 2024480
Nov 2023480
Oct 2023480
Sept 2023480
Aug 2023480
Jul 2023480
Jun 2023496
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Dec 2022540
Nov 2022590
Oct 2022640
Sept 2022640
Aug 2022545
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022500
May 2022463
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022370
Feb 2022340
Jan 2022330
Dec 2021360
Nov 2021350
Oct 2021308
Sept 2021300
Aug 2021300
Jul 2021320
Jun 2021320
May 2021320
Apr 2021316
Mar 2021300
Feb 2021300
Jan 2021312
Dec 2020360
Nov 2020300
Oct 2020312
Sept 2020300
Aug 2020300
Jul 2020300
Jun 2020300
May 2020300
Apr 2020305
Mar 2020305
Feb 2020300
Jan 2020304
Dec 2019320
Nov 2019320
Oct 2019315
Sept 2019305
Aug 2019320
Jul 2019320
Jun 2019320
May 2019320
Apr 2019320
Mar 2019308
Feb 2019310
Jan 2019340
Dec 2018320
Nov 2018340
Oct 2018346
Sept 2018360
Aug 2018360
Jul 2018360
Jun 2018360
May 2018360
Apr 2018360
Mar 2018360
Feb 2018360
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017320
Nov 2017320
Oct 2017320
Sept 2017300
Aug 2017280
Jul 2017280
Jun 2017280
May 2017280
Apr 2017260
Mar 2017260
Feb 2017265
Jan 2017260
Dec 2016260
Nov 2016230
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016300
Aug 2016280
Jul 2016280
Jun 2016280
May 2016280
Apr 2016280
Mar 2016280
Feb 2016280
Jan 2016280
Dec 2015280
Nov 2015280
Oct 2015280
Aug 2015280
Jul 2015264
Jun 2015260
May 2015240
Apr 2015240
Mar 2015240
Feb 2015240
Jan 2015253
Dec 2014280
Nov 2014280
Oct 2014280
Sept 2014280
Aug 2014280
Jul 2014270
Jun 2014240
May 2014240
Apr 2014240
Mar 2014240
Feb 2014240
Jan 2014240
Dec 2013240
Nov 2013210
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013250
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Sept 2012300
Aug 2012300
Jul 2012300
Jun 2012300
Oct 2011245
Sept 2011204
Aug 2011200
Jul 2011200
Jun 2011200
May 2011200
Apr 2011200
Mar 2011200
Feb 2011200
Jan 2011200
Dec 2010200
Nov 2010200
Oct 2010200
Sept 2010200
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010200
May 2010200
Apr 2010200
Mar 2010200
Feb 2010210
Jan 2010227
Dec 2009240
Nov 2009240
Oct 2009240
Sept 2009240
Aug 2009220
Jul 2009212
Jun 2009200
May 2009200
Apr 2009200
Mar 2009200
Feb 2009200
Jan 2009196
Dec 2008200
Nov 2008200
Oct 2008200
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008200
Jul 2008200
Jun 2008185
May 2008180
Apr 2008180
Mar 2008180
Feb 2008180
Jan 2008180
Dec 2007167
Nov 2007175
Oct 2007160
Sept 2007178
Aug 2007180
Jul 2007180
Jun 2007160
May 2007160
Apr 2007160
Mar 2007160
Feb 2007160
Jan 2007165

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-898-73-retail-kg.