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Food basket in Nioro

Kayes, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,534–5,099

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,555–5,082

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,775 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,534 and 5,099 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,555 and 5,082 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Nioro: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,775 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,534 and 5,099 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,555 and 5,082 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,688–4,517 3,064 2,491–5,634
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,586–4,901 3,059 2,416–5,794
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,534–5,099 3,046 2,094–5,776
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,469–5,169 3,016 2,042–7,481
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,555–5,082 3,009 2,359–7,188
Cost history (213 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,775
Jul 20264,200
Jun 20264,200
May 20264,200
Apr 20264,200
Mar 20264,200
Feb 20264,200
Jan 20264,200
Dec 20254,200
Oct 20254,200
Sept 20254,200
Aug 20254,200
Jul 20254,200
Jun 20255,400
May 20255,472
Apr 20255,760
Mar 20256,336
Feb 20255,760
Jan 20256,336
Dec 20246,240
Nov 20246,240
Oct 20246,240
Sept 20246,240
Aug 20246,960
Jul 20246,120
Jun 20245,760
May 20245,760
Apr 20245,760
Mar 20245,760
Jan 20245,760
Nov 20235,760
Oct 20235,760
Sept 20235,760
Aug 20235,760
Jul 20235,760
Jun 20235,952
May 20236,000
Apr 20236,000
Dec 20226,480
Nov 20227,080
Oct 20227,680
Sept 20227,680
Aug 20226,540
Jul 20226,000
Jun 20226,000
May 20225,556
Apr 20224,800
Mar 20224,440
Feb 20224,080
Jan 20223,960
Dec 20214,320
Nov 20214,200
Oct 20213,696
Sept 20213,600
Aug 20213,600
Jul 20213,840
Jun 20213,840
May 20213,840
Apr 20213,792
Mar 20213,600
Feb 20213,600
Jan 20213,744
Dec 20204,320
Nov 20203,600
Oct 20203,744
Sept 20203,600
Aug 20203,600
Jul 20203,600
Jun 20203,600
May 20203,600
Apr 20203,660
Mar 20203,660
Feb 20203,600
Jan 20203,648
Dec 20193,840
Nov 20193,840
Oct 20193,780
Sept 20193,660
Aug 20193,840
Jul 20193,840
Jun 20193,840
May 20193,840
Apr 20193,840
Mar 20193,696
Feb 20193,720
Jan 20194,080
Dec 20183,840
Nov 20184,080
Oct 20184,152
Sept 20184,320
Aug 20184,320
Jul 20184,320
Jun 20184,320
May 20184,320
Apr 20184,320
Mar 20184,320
Feb 20184,320
Jan 20184,200
Dec 20173,840
Nov 20173,840
Oct 20173,840
Sept 20173,600
Aug 20173,360
Jul 20173,360
Jun 20173,360
May 20173,360
Apr 20173,120
Mar 20173,120
Feb 20173,180
Jan 20173,120
Dec 20163,120
Nov 20162,760
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20163,600
Aug 20163,360
Jul 20163,360
Jun 20163,360
May 20163,360
Apr 20163,360
Mar 20163,360
Feb 20163,360
Jan 20163,360
Dec 20153,360
Nov 20153,360
Oct 20153,360
Aug 20153,360
Jul 20153,168
Jun 20153,120
May 20152,880
Apr 20152,880
Mar 20152,880
Feb 20152,880
Jan 20153,036
Dec 20143,360
Nov 20143,360
Oct 20143,360
Sept 20143,360
Aug 20143,360
Jul 20143,240
Jun 20142,880
May 20142,880
Apr 20142,880
Mar 20142,880
Feb 20142,880
Jan 20142,880
Dec 20132,880
Nov 20132,520
Oct 20132,400
Sept 20133,000
Aug 20132,400
Jul 20132,400
Sept 20123,600
Aug 20123,600
Jul 20123,600
Jun 20123,600
Oct 20112,940
Sept 20112,448
Aug 20112,400
Jul 20112,400
Jun 20112,400
May 20112,400
Apr 20112,400
Mar 20112,400
Feb 20112,400
Jan 20112,400
Dec 20102,400
Nov 20102,400
Oct 20102,400
Sept 20102,400
Aug 20102,400
Jul 20102,400
Jun 20102,400
May 20102,400
Apr 20102,400
Mar 20102,400
Feb 20102,520
Jan 20102,720
Dec 20092,880
Nov 20092,880
Oct 20092,880
Sept 20092,880
Aug 20092,640
Jul 20092,544
Jun 20092,400
May 20092,400
Apr 20092,400
Mar 20092,400
Feb 20092,400
Jan 20092,352
Dec 20082,400
Nov 20082,400
Oct 20082,400
Sept 20082,400
Aug 20082,400
Jul 20082,400
Jun 20082,220
May 20082,160
Apr 20082,160
Mar 20082,160
Feb 20082,160
Jan 20082,160
Dec 20072,000
Nov 20072,100
Oct 20071,920
Sept 20072,130
Aug 20072,160
Jul 20072,160
Jun 20071,920
May 20071,920
Apr 20071,920
Mar 20071,920
Feb 20071,920
Jan 20071,980

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189