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Maize in Ouolofobougou

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

172–302

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

165–374

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 172 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 165 and 374 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Ouolofobougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 172 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 165 and 374 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 706); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 216–274 245 157–305 333 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 194–289 242 143–375 329 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 172–302 226 126–441 302 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 160–344 219 107–656 290 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 165–374 219 123–706 290 –
Price history (227 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025263
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025275
Jul 2025290
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024300
Nov 2024300
Oct 2024340
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024300
Jun 2024300
May 2024281
Apr 2024270
Mar 2024269
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023280
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023288
Jun 2023269
May 2023295
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022350
Sept 2022356
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022394
Jun 2022381
May 2022345
Apr 2022331
Mar 2022310
Feb 2022256
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021240
Jul 2021219
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021195
Feb 2021175
Jan 2021175
Dec 2020180
Nov 2020188
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020185
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020160
Feb 2020156
Jan 2020156
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019150
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019150
Aug 2019187
Jul 2019150
Jun 2019150
May 2019150
Apr 2019150
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019162
Dec 2018150
Nov 2018162
Oct 2018210
Sept 2018237
Aug 2018231
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018200
May 2018205
Apr 2018206
Mar 2018191
Feb 2018193
Jan 2018190
Dec 2017181
Nov 2017175
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017212
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017194
Feb 2017181
Jan 2017170
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016194
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016195
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016180
Feb 2016194
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015190
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015194
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015194
Jun 2015195
May 2015181
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015167
Feb 2015175
Jan 2015175
Dec 2014175
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014180
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014170
Jun 2014169
May 2014175
Apr 2014176
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013175
Oct 2013175
Sept 2013175
Aug 2013198
Jul 2013196
Jun 2013175
May 2013175
Apr 2013178
Mar 2013185
Feb 2013188
Jan 2013190
Nov 2012188
Oct 2012214
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012250
May 2012255
Apr 2012250
Mar 2012244
Feb 2012225
Jan 2012235
Nov 2011225
Oct 2011225
Sept 2011206
Aug 2011190
Jul 2011194
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011172
Mar 2011166
Feb 2011169
Jan 2011150
Dec 2010150
Nov 2010150
Oct 2010169
Sept 2010181
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010185
May 2010175
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010175
Dec 2009185
Nov 2009181
Oct 2009190
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009212
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009191
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009188
Jan 2009169
Dec 2008155
Nov 2008169
Oct 2008194
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008200
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008175
May 2008169
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007128
Jun 2007125
May 2007125
Apr 2007131
Mar 2007131
Feb 2007135
Jan 2007125

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-899-51-retail-kg.