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Millet in Ouolofobougou

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

233–373

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

210–401

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 233 and 373 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 210 and 401 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Ouolofobougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 233 and 373 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 210 and 401 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 255–334 283 241–348 366 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 242–349 283 231–385 368 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 233–373 276 231–498 364 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 217–384 270 195–475 341 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 210–401 256 175–535 327 –
Price history (228 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026288
Jul 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025270
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025300
Jul 2025350
Jun 2025350
May 2025363
Apr 2025360
Mar 2025350
Feb 2025350
Jan 2025350
Dec 2024380
Nov 2024425
Oct 2024440
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024390
Jun 2024306
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024288
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023310
Sept 2023350
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023338
Jun 2023300
May 2023330
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023350
Dec 2022375
Nov 2022420
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022430
Jul 2022419
Jun 2022413
May 2022410
Apr 2022394
Mar 2022345
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022275
Dec 2021269
Nov 2021255
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021230
Jul 2021219
Jun 2021205
May 2021219
Apr 2021219
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020210
Nov 2020238
Oct 2020244
Sept 2020225
Aug 2020225
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019185
Nov 2019175
Oct 2019180
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019218
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019212
Feb 2019243
Jan 2019231
Dec 2018218
Nov 2018231
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018237
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017256
Nov 2017262
Oct 2017275
Sept 2017275
Aug 2017255
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017250
May 2017230
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017213
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016210
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015210
Nov 2015225
Oct 2015225
Aug 2015225
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015225
May 2015225
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015208
Dec 2014213
Nov 2014225
Oct 2014225
Sept 2014225
Aug 2014225
Jul 2014225
Jun 2014225
May 2014225
Apr 2014225
Mar 2014225
Feb 2014225
Jan 2014225
Dec 2013225
Nov 2013225
Oct 2013225
Sept 2013225
Aug 2013231
Jul 2013225
Jun 2013225
May 2013225
Apr 2013225
Mar 2013231
Feb 2013225
Jan 2013235
Nov 2012300
Oct 2012320
Sept 2012325
Aug 2012325
Jul 2012305
Jun 2012300
May 2012300
Apr 2012300
Mar 2012269
Feb 2012256
Jan 2012250
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011175
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011175
May 2011173
Apr 2011172
Mar 2011169
Feb 2011169
Jan 2011162
Dec 2010162
Nov 2010160
Oct 2010169
Sept 2010181
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010190
May 2010181
Apr 2010188
Mar 2010190
Feb 2010195
Jan 2010188
Dec 2009200
Nov 2009200
Oct 2009215
Sept 2009230
Aug 2009212
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009191
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008175
Nov 2008181
Oct 2008194
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008200
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008175
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007144
May 2007148
Apr 2007150
Mar 2007150
Feb 2007148
Jan 2007150

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-899-73-retail-kg.